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Discussion Starter · #1 ·
From DigiTimes:

Analyst: Retail prices for 32-inch LCD TVs to fall to US$799 in 4Q


Prices for 32-inch LCD TVs from white-box vendors will drop to US$799 in the US market during the Christmas holiday, according to Morgan Stanley executive director Frank Wang, as cited in the Chinese-language Economic Daily News.


He also predicted quotes from first tier makers will decrease to US$499 by 2010, down from US$1,999 currently, while white-box vendors will have lowered their prices for the segment to US$299 by then.


Currently, US local distributors Wal-Mart and Best Buy are scheduled to roll out 32-inch LCD TVs priced at US$999 in the fourth quarter.

Rogo: So if the no name stuff is going to be $999, what's going to be $799?


In addition, the average price from first tier makers for 37-inch models is currently US$2,499, while 42-inch models are selling for US$2,999, Wang said.

Rogo: Really? I like these forecasts, but the current numbers are being played a little loosey goosey with.


Worldwide LCD-TV panel shipments are expected to rise to 18.8 million units in 2005, up 87 percent from 10 million in 2004 according to iSuppli. Wang stated that LCD TV shipments will jump five fold within five years and reach 100 million units, accounting for half of the global TV market.


Retail prices forecast for LCD TV in 2010 (US$)

Code:
Code:
32-inch   37-inch    42-inch


First-tier makers              499         599          799

Third-tier makers              299         399          499
Rogo: Even if this is a little optimisitic -- and I think it is somewhat -- it's still pretty exciting. It assumes something on the order of 70-80% reductions over the next 5 years. It predicts around 20-25% per year continued pricing reductions for that long. Nothing I've seen from iSuppli or DisplaySearch predicts that costs will get us there. Therefore, it's going to have to come from elsewhere -- producer margins, retailer margins, etc. That kind of predicition is inherently tenuous. Even still, it's exciting to imagine putting 5 42-inch TVs in your house for the cost of what many paid for a single ED plasma just a few years ago.



PS -- Why are there no second-tier makers? It's always first-tier and third-tier. Like first world and third world.
 

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I think these are realistic predictions on price. Does anybody make a 42 inch LCD, though? They seem to jump from 37 to 45...
 

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Discussion Starter · #4 ·
... right, and Samsung is trying to force the market to standardize on 40s. And something between 37 and 45 will eventually come from Sharp. And CPT has a 42 on the roadmap.
 

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Quote:
Originally Posted by rogo
From DigiTimes:

Analyst: Retail prices for 32-inch LCD TVs to fall to US$799 in 4Q


Prices for 32-inch LCD TVs from white-box vendors will drop to US$799 in the US market during the Christmas holiday, according to Morgan Stanley executive director Frank Wang, as cited in the Chinese-language Economic Daily News.


He also predicted quotes from first tier makers will decrease to US$499 by 2010, down from US$1,999 currently, while white-box vendors will have lowered their prices for the segment to US$299 by then.


Currently, US local distributors Wal-Mart and Best Buy are scheduled to roll out 32-inch LCD TVs priced at US$999 in the fourth quarter.

Rogo: So if the no name stuff is going to be $999, what's going to be $799?


In addition, the average price from first tier makers for 37-inch models is currently US$2,499, while 42-inch models are selling for US$2,999, Wang said.

Rogo: Really? I like these forecasts, but the current numbers are being played a little loosey goosey with.


Worldwide LCD-TV panel shipments are expected to rise to 18.8 million units in 2005, up 87 percent from 10 million in 2004 according to iSuppli. Wang stated that LCD TV shipments will jump five fold within five years and reach 100 million units, accounting for half of the global TV market.


Retail prices forecast for LCD TV in 2010 (US$)

Code:
Code:
32-inch   37-inch    42-inch


First-tier makers              499         599          799

Third-tier makers              299         399          499
Rogo: Even if this is a little optimisitic -- and I think it is somewhat -- it's still pretty exciting. It assumes something on the order of 70-80% reductions over the next 5 years. It predicts around 20-25% per year continued pricing reductions for that long. Nothing I've seen from iSuppli or DisplaySearch predicts that costs will get us there. Therefore, it's going to have to come from elsewhere -- producer margins, retailer margins, etc. That kind of predicition is inherently tenuous. Even still, it's exciting to imagine putting 5 42-inch TVs in your house for the cost of what many paid for a single ED plasma just a few years ago.



PS -- Why are there no second-tier makers? It's always first-tier and third-tier. Like first world and third world.
Prices right now are in a freefall and this is good. Bestbuy is OVERPRICED as a reseller so if they have 32" for $999, I can get a 32" elsewhere probably the same one for MUCH cheaper. 32"s now at bestbuy are WAY HIGH and rediculously overpriced and are WAY OVER the $999 figure in many multiples. Even if $999 is an Insignia labled model, that is the same price they are charging now for the 26" Insignia. The Insignia models arent price competitive because I can do cheaper for more feature rich models with other brands at other vendors.
 

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Costco return policy anyone? I kid I kid. Anyway I wonder how this projected decline will be affected by new technologies that emerge.
 

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Damn, I just bought a 27" LCD 4 days ago. I'll be taking it back to BB and seeing what happens. If I can get a 32" for the price i paid for the 27" 4 days ago, I'll be happy.
 

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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kid Red
Damn, I just bought a 27" LCD 4 days ago. I'll be taking it back to BB and seeing what happens. If I can get a 32" for the price i paid for the 27" 4 days ago, I'll be happy.
The Westinghouse at non BB would have been a little lower but not much ($70 or more less).
 

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how will they make any profit at these prices? That's cheaper than some current 19" model LCD monitors. I also wonder whether this will include TVs or be just monitors, will it affect features, will it only be low-end units?


I was considering a purchase of a 32" unit in the immediate future. Now I may wait until Christmas (I am certainly not waiting until 2010).
 

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Quote:
Originally Posted by agogley
how will they make any profit at these prices? That's cheaper than some current 19" model LCD monitors. I also wonder whether this will include TVs or be just monitors, will it affect features, will it only be low-end units?


I was considering a purchase of a 32" unit in the immediate future. Now I may wait until Christmas (I am certainly not waiting until 2010).
How will who make money? The big companies are taking in bagfulls of cash from the panel side and companies like Bestbuy are also making big profit from the reseller side. Chi Mei did get hit however with loses.


Some smaller vendors will get squeezed out of the marketplace and I suspect that some big companies will be forced to merge their tv units. People will just like everything else have to compete on intense cost efficiencies and quality of product and everything inbetween. There is plenty of money to go around even with lower pricing.


Consumers win in all of this.
 

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Discussion Starter · #11 ·
Acctually, virtually no one is making money in LCDs.


Sharp, which is integrated, is probably making lots. The parents of Samsung's LCD division and LG.Philips are probably doing well. Their LCD arms, however, are not. Chi Mei, Chungwa and AUO are barely in positive gross margins, let alone profits.


I think that it's going to get worse still for mfrs. over time and that's what threatens some of this pricing action. But I look forward to seeing it all come true.
 

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Quote:
Originally Posted by ajulius
The Westinghouse at non BB would have been a little lower but not much ($70 or more less).


Even if I can only get the 27" w6, that would just offer so much more in terms of features. Thanks for your comments in the other thread to help me decide what to do.


Price from name brands need to come down the most, no name brands are priced nicely :)
 

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Dang it, this is why so many people here have TV-buying-paralysis! Like, I just bought a $1300 26" LCD and now I'm thinking I should have waited. Between the ever dropping prices and the ever improving features, people end up delaying purchases for years! It's the same with computers and other tech, though, too, so I guess it's just a perpetual problem. I decided to just pull the trigger and get it done, but it's still hard when you see stuff like this, especially when such a large amount of money is involved (well it's a lot in my particular budget). Bahh!
 

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Well, in fairness to me, I had no idea a newer model was 2-3 weeks out when I bought mine. Had I known I would have waited before purchasing.


The hesitation spends from the multiple hundreds or thousands of dollars being spent. No one really wants to just spend and get crap. They want the best value. Knowing that in 1 month you'd get more for the same price why would you not wait? Hell, I waited 8 months before buying a RPTV because I wanted to get the JVC LCOS because it sounded good.
 

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Quote:
Originally Posted by rogo
Acctually, virtually no one is making money in LCDs.


Sharp, which is integrated, is probably making lots. The parents of Samsung's LCD division and LG.Philips are probably doing well. Their LCD arms, however, are not. Chi Mei, Chungwa and AUO are barely in positive gross margins, let alone profits.


I think that it's going to get worse still for mfrs. over time and that's what threatens some of this pricing action. But I look forward to seeing it all come true.
AUO was the most profitable lcd company in the world. You are so wrong.


AU Optronics Corp. (AUO), Taiwan's No. ... This made AUO become, for the first time, the world's most profitable panel maker since its mass production in 1997. ...



AU Optronics (AUO) reported that it had a net income of NT$470 million.


470 million off of LCD sales in a quarter AFTER all expenses! Since when is 470 million barely profitable? Most companies dont make 470 million a QUARTER in the world. Thats 470 x 4= like 2 Billion dollars a year revenues a year if the trend kept up over a full year.


Maybe you should look at the breakdowns of each company to see the profit margins. The big margin product right now for these companies are the LCD panels right now. TV manufacturing is very tight margins. The players like Sony who were manufacturers but didnt own a majority of the panels lost revenue. Now Sony is getting more involved with the Samsung Joint Venture from the panel side.


The link was down that was trying to use, however AUO is the WORLDS most profitable lcd manufacturer. Samsung, Sharp, LG, AUO are ALL MAKING bag fulls of cash. AND YES from the LCD side without even taking account profits from any other products they may make money off of. All of these LCD makers are profitable. The TV side is NOT as profible however because you have hundreds of TV makers. With the panel makers you only have a small handful of competitors.


And yes companies like CMO and Chunghwa are facing losses right now. But the vast majority of players are making money and the players who are making money are making more on the LCD side than the TV side.


There are more margins to be squeezed from the resellers who have high margins, the panel makers themselves, the TV makers are in a tight squeeze and are trying to build marketshare in order to avoid going under, yet some TV makers will indeed go out of business. So to wrap up:


All the money is on the panel side. Those non integrated manufacturers like Sony are getting burned and have to turn more to integrated business models.
 

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I find it difficult to believe that we'll see large panels at that price point by christmas. I mean good 19" computer monitors go for more than that. But heck, if it does come true I wont be complaining. I'll have LCD screens replacing all the pictures in my home.
 

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Today at lunch I saw a very nice looking 37" Proton LCD at Sears for $1,899. It looked so good I actually thought it was a HD plasma because of its size and surprisingly good contrast (before the salesman set out the price/info card). Is Proton a Korean or Chinese OEM? Anyone here have this one?
 

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Quote:
Originally Posted by ajulius
AUO was the most profitable lcd company in the world. You are so wrong.


AU Optronics (AUO) reported that it had a net income of NT$470 million.


470 million off of LCD sales in a quarter AFTER all expenses! Since when is 470 million barely profitable?
Not to get all picky, but that number isn't quite right. Their latest press release (8/3/2005) says NT$46,247 million, which is ~ US$1,462 million. That is revenues of a billion and a half dollars and not profits.


Gross profits were a "mere" NT$3,161 million and operating income was NT$532 million. That's still a respectable profit on increasing margins (6.8% vs. 3.2% last quarter) and a big turnaround from last year.


More info: http://snipurl.com/h8pz
 

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Discussion Starter · #19 ·
ajuilius, mea culpa on AUO. Apparently, they have swung to a profit.


It >>is
 

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Rogo,


Your point is well taken. LCD manufacturers aren't makinig much money. That to me indicates a short term future of lots of competition but a long term future of fewer competitors. Companies cannot continue to operate at a loss which means either prices go up, costs go down, or companies exit the scene. I expect that the LCD/plasma scene will eventually stabalize similar to the 17 and 19" computer screen market.
 
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