[BSN]

I've been wondering about this since I got my first ever dlp projector.


We all know that DLP is the future. I'm betting that the Star Wars II movie shot entirely in digital is just the very tip of the ice berg.


Everyone else who aren't in the "know" (I sure wasn't until I started getting involved in this forum) are checking out direct-view TV's and Rear proj. TV's at the local Circuit City or Good Guys or what have you because they think that consumers are only limited to such options when it comes to HT. In other words, if they don't see it on the shelves (i.e. front projectors), they must not exist.


You've gotta admit, we are all in our own little world in here. And until front projection systems come down in price and technology develops, we will continue to do so.


I'm no psychic but I think there will come a time when front projectors will go mainstream soon and people will start realizing, "Hey...I never thought of getting a DLP projector! Maybe I better look into this!"


I can already tell because my friends, to whom I demo my theater to, never thought that having your own real-life theater in your own living room was even [financially] possible. I mean you only see those in the homes of the rich and famous, right?!


Pretty soon, the demand skyrockets and C.C. and G.G will be stocking them because everyone's going to want one. (Remember when Playstation 2 first came out? Lines everywhere!)


Now before that all happens, I want to know...is it a good idea to invest now with Texas Instruments while front projection is still in the "hush-hush" mode?! I mean, in theory, it sounds like money-in-the-bag, isn't it?


Let me know.

 

[Tom Carey]

TXN has a market cap of nearly $50B based upon sales in other product lines. It is by no means a pure play. If you want to bet on the success of DLP, perhaps there is an OEM that is publicly held that would make more sense. Any suggestions out there?


"Texas Instruments is a global semiconductor company and a leading designer and supplier of digital signal processing solutions. For the three months ended 3/02, revenues fell 28% to $1.83 billion. Net loss totaled $38 million vs. an income of $230 million. Revenues reflect a reduction in semiconductor sales due to the overall market decline. Net loss also reflects lower gross margins and $14 million in charges primarily related to the closing of a manufacturing facility."

 

[toddalin]

BSN, when I went to the CES last Jan I had your thought exactly and did buy stock in TI. So far it's pretty much been stagnant, but hey who knows...


BTW, I also tried to buy stock in Farouja (their chips are getting around) and found them to be held by Sage which was to undergo a buyout with stock transfer.... Broker said to wait and see.

 

[Mark Hunter]

Hi Joel,


I agree with Tom. TI has many product lines besides DLP.


Also, I thought that DLP Cinema was generally regarded as failing. The adoption rates have been very low for the past 6 years since the quality doesn't approach film, and even when Lucas pushed hard on the front, few theater owners made the leap (*very* different from the THX push for the original Star Wars).


...and now, there are new competitors forming partnerships to do extremely bright, highly detailed, pixel-free, QXGA resolution D-Cinema.

I'm thinking that DLP will become the laserdisc of digital cinema...just not enough market penetration to hold back the killer generation of content to come (DVD in the laserdisc case).


I suppose only time will tell...but that's my very non-professional market analysis .


Mark

 

[hhelmut]

Just to have a look at the DMD chips of TI, this will say nothing about the rest of the company.


TI make a great deal with DMD, but they should be also take care of LCOS, a big competition of DMD by physics. Or bettercKnown as D-ILA.


I recommend, ask professioneslls in stocks, but what we can read in Europe, you cannot trust the recommodations of stock analysts of the US Brokers; according to our newspapers, they are more interested in their own wallets than in wallets of customers.


hb

 

[Carl Brinkman]

I listened to the webcast of the TI financial analysts meeting a few weeks ago. Whatever sales oriented statements they may make they have to level with these guys.


In a three hour presentation the DLP area recieved a grand total of two sentences in passing! This is NOT a key area affecting the corporate results of TI.


Some of you might be interested in checking out this webcast as they had many interesting things to say in the DSP and analog IC area. Both Intel and TI are pushing further integration that could have as much impact on projector prices as the DMD chip progress has.

 

[Halcy]

Arrghh!


Could you please post on the Silicon Investor board instead of AVSForum projector board, please. You'll get now only more knowledgeable answers, but this forum will not turn into a financial forum.


What next?


"Should I decorate my home in provencial style now that I have a red Sim2 projector?"


-> Martha Stewart. Next!

 

[Carl Brinkman]

Halcy,


With the technical smarts of many here on AVS I think that BSN has a legitimate question. One of the better ways to invest these days is to find a leading edge technology company in an area you have some knowledge of that may be undiscovered by the market in general. Its just that TI isn't that opportunity.


But several others like Silicon Image could be.



If you aren't interested just don't click! The subject was pretty clear, or are you also one who is trying to defend the use of scarce AVS resources ?

 

[Tom Carey]

I checked out the Silicon Investor website. What a mess! The people who come here are very focused and knowledgeable. Good suggestions might come up.


One problem: leisure industries are often unprofitable. Poeple want to be in them to be in them, and profit be damned! E.g., golf courses and marinas.

 

[Mark Hinton]

If you believe that there are some good growth opportunities in DLP, one way to potentially take advantage of this since TI is not really a pure play is to find other subcomponents that are commonly used across the variety of DLPs available and figure out who has the key market position in any of the critical subcomponents. I don't know the DLP subcomponents that well, but a couple of possibilities might be: the color wheel manufacturers, particularly if one of them is coming up with a better/faster way to do the color wheel function; the micro mirror manufactures, or the light source manufacturers. I'm sure someone else is more knowledgeable about all of these subcomponents and their manufacturers, but that's where I would look for growth and potential stock opportunities (presuming that any of the worthwhile companies are public).


Good Luck,


Mark

 

[thebland]

You must think you are in 1999.........then the investment would have been sound and lucrative.


Jeff

 

[Tom Carey]

Buy low. Now is low. Sell high. 1999 was high. Virtually no 1999 tech investment would have panned out.

 

[kelliot]

Quote:

Originally posted by milori Also, I thought that DLP Cinema was generally regarded as failing. The adoption rates have been very low for the past 6 years since the quality doesn't approach film, and even when Lucas pushed hard on the front, few theater owners made the leap (*very* different from the THX push for the original Star Wars).

I've heard that theater owners and chains are balking at the high cost of upgrades and digital delivery by satellite. The profit margins for theaters are too small to justify it.

 

[Carl Brinkman]

The latest issue of Forbes gives the first encouraging words about digital theaters I have heard yet. Last year 6 major chains went bankrupt. Phil Anschutz has resurrected 3 of them, UA, Edwards Theaters and Regal Cinema, in a new chain, Regal Entertainment.


They plan to invest $50 - $60M in new digital projectors during 2002 through 2003; not to improve the quality of the movies shown but to improve their ability to click ads into place with a computer mouse rather than the laborious means used today. They also want to replace the "glorified slide shows" from local businesses.


The 3 chains that are now combined had ad revenues of only $70M last year with ticket sales of about $2 billion. Their motives have n othing to do with making our viewing any more enjoyable or the studios distribution any more efficient, just the promist of adding substantially to their revenue by selling more sophistocated ads to harangue us while we wait for the show to start.

 

[raoul]

Look it up for your self. TI has been basically stagnant.


The DLP thing may/may not make it into the mainstream. Joe Bloe isn't keen on two big things about FP's, first of which is it's hard to dedicate a room to a front projector, and not many people want to have to spend money on that sort of thing. Don't forget the $1000 grey screens that have electric motors. Doesn't rule out Samsung type RP TV's though. Those stand a better chance of catching on.


The other major factor is right now you buy a TV and it works and then it dies five years later or you go bigger then and that's that, but with projection you need to replace bulbs and while they still cost in the low hundreds to replace people aren't going to be too happy. Don't forget 90% of the TV's sold in this country sell for less than $800. If DLP is to make a HUGE difference in the value of TI's stock then it'd have to sell in numbers comparable to regular direct view TVs. Too many variables right now. In the end oher DLP uses, for communication etc, may have more of an impact than television, but right now there's nothing clear on the horizon.


Basically, if a vast percentage of TV's sold were based on a TI chip and the cost of bulbs, and optics got low enough

they may in fact do well. The RP Samsungs are very easy to deal with in terms of placement. They don't even occupy half a room like other RP TV's.


D Cinema is too small a market to affect it's stock and from what I saw in Attack of the Drones, DLP (I saw it Digital) sucks the plot right out of the script.