[Version]

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Warner, Universal and Paramount are all set to sign on with HD-DVD over Blu-Ray according to Business Week.


That would seem to suggest that Sony has a bigger fight on their hands from Toshiba than they thought for format supremacy.


HD-DVD - Warner, Universal, Paramount


Blu-Ray - Sony, Columbia Tristar (Sony), MGM (Sony)


This may be Sony vs the world round two (or three, or four depnding on who's counting). They defintely have better odds this time around with a much bigger library but it doesn't look like this fight is over yet.

 

[PooperScooper]

If they both flood the market with titles and price wars cause the price of each player to be $200, I'm all for 2 formats. But, somehow, I don't think this will be the case. One would think Sony could do it since they can make players and they own content, but I don't think they will.


larry

 

[nyg]

The fact remains that almost all of the CE companies are behind Blu-ray. Who's going to make HD-DVD players besides Toshiba? Who even owns anything by Toshiba? I never have. I don't believe anyone I know currently has anything from Toshiba either. They must have a very small slice in the hardware marketplace. I stand by my sig, Blu-ray will prevail.

 

[Per Johnny]

The question is really how big(I mean small) the market for another pre-recorded media is? Are the american people(I mean Joe SixPack) willing to use their money on a new system, when they probaly are more than happy with their dvds?


And there comes the dilemma with every new media - no-one are willing the put out many and big titles before it is a significant demand.


Per Johnny

 

[Version]

Toshiba is a pretty big company 720p. They had been the number two RPTV company for quite a while and they did manage to push DVD to a pretty successful run.


Besides, it doesn't really matter. If the content is available the CE companies will be all over any format.


That said I certainly am not declaring any kind of "win" for HD-DVD. Just stating that the war may not be so cut and dried.


Besides, I think Per Johnny has a point. I don't think HD-DVD or Blu-Ray will be a mainstream product for quite a long time. DVD will live on far longer than many would like to believe I suspect.

 

[thebland]

Agreed, Version. Heck, look at the percent of the population who has a HDTV? AVSforum members??


Few 'need' this technology at this point!


I think all knew those studios were going to with HD-DVD. We'll see what happens next. This is far, far from over. Sony has too much invested (they both do).


I imagine we'll see both players next year (and software). Eventiually, one will fade away. But who knows when?

 

[mike411]

"Toshiba's HD DVD technology would be able to play current DVDs as well as those in high-definition" This is a plus I still see many people still buying the DVD/VHS combos. I am not ready to go through another upgrade just yet. I still have my VCR collection!

 

[Gary McCoy]

Of course you don't have to wait for HD-DVD or Blu-Ray technology to record over-the-air HD and play it back from the DVD. I published a basic tutorial on how to do this with current red laser technology and DVD+R media:

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showt...hreadid=458141


The "transport stream" recording and playback method has a lot to reccomend it whether or not you use DVD media or D-VHS or a PVR/hard disk. The principle limitation of course is that the ATSC broadcast specification will not support the 1080p video mode, it is limited to 1080i/720p/480p/480i. But after all the display that can do justice to 1080p video is the rare exception today, not the rule.


Given the years that will pass before the HD-capable displays have penetrarted the installed base, and the years before the HD-DVD/Blu-Ray format war has a clear winner, I believe that ATSC transport stream capture and playback is an economically viable and immediately available alternative. "High Definition DVD Recorders" could be built using the same techniques used for the HTPC-based DVD players of today, using off-the-shelf PC hardware and a variant of my red-laser DVD recording method. It would require a custom front-end be coded to steamline the (presently multi-step) recording operations.


I see a revenue opportunity to sell such hardware configurations. Another opportunity exists for a user-friendly ATSC transport stream editor. I think such software would have wide appeal going forward.


The storage of 1 hour of HDTV requires $1.60 in quality, certified DVD+R red-laser media. This is half the cost of D-VHS.


Gary

 

[Matt Tucker]

Despite the improved quality of Blu-Ray, isn't red laser HD-DVD supposed to be cheaper to produce than Blu-Ray? Am I remembering that correctly? I think that that fact alone will push Toshiba's product ahead. Though there is something to be said for a lot of the major manufacturers getting behind a technology like Blu-Ray.


I think both will hang in there, but it will be just like Sony/Philips SACD. There are people that love the quality of the format and doggedly push for it, but the majority of the public will go for the lower cost item.

 

[Dean Roddey]

Quote:

Despite the improved quality of Blu-Ray, isn't red laser HD-DVD supposed to be cheaper to produce than Blu-Ray? Am I remembering that correctly? I think that that fact alone will push Toshiba's product ahead.

Not necessarily. Exactly because this product is an elite product at this time, and is purposefully ahead of the curve so that companies can get control of what will inevitably be the future format, it will be marketed initially to people who DO care about image quality and mostly understand the technical issues. By the time the great unwashed masses get involved, the decision will likely have already been made by those of us who ponied up for the expensive first players and dealt with the bugs and worked out a consensus as to which is superior.

 

[Version]

Red-Laser HD-DVD is exactly the same as today's DVD just using a different compmression scheme. So it costs no more.


Violet laser HD-DVD (which is what we are talking about) is significantly cheaper than Blu-Ray to produce in the short term since it can use existing DVD processing lines. Blu-Ray requires significant capital investment.


However, long-term which ever format sells in more volume will end up being cheaper to produce. The draw back with Blu-Ray is that if Hi Def optical discs fall into a niche market with DVD surviving in the mid-term then HD-DVD has a big advantage as companies will not want to invest capital for small market gains.

 

[rezzy]

Quote:

The fact remains that almost all of the CE companies are behind Blu-ray. Who's going to make HD-DVD players besides Toshiba? Who even owns anything by Toshiba? I never have. I don't believe anyone I know currently has anything from Toshiba either. They must have a very small slice in the hardware marketplace. I stand by my sig, Blu-ray will prevail.

Have to admit, I'm biased for Toshiba. My first DVD player was made by them. Tosh/Time-Warner are a few of the major players to help bring us the current standard, so they definitely know their stuff. Sony could gain the lead if they drop BR into their PS3, but I'm not sure I'd watch movies from it. The gaming experience should take a big leap forward though. So I guess we early adopters are gonna' have to get out there and 'vote' with our wallets to see who the winner(s) is.

 

[Richie Duroseau]

Quote:

Originally posted by Per Johnny The question is really how big(I mean small) the market for another pre-recorded media is? Are the american people(I mean Joe SixPack) willing to use their money on a new system, when they probaly are more than happy with their dvds? And there comes the dilemma with every new media - no-one are willing the put out many and big titles before it is a significant demand. Per Johnny

The success of DVD has generated an enormous interest in home-cinema versus going out to the movie theater. That thing is going to grow some more and I predict that high resolution video, no matter the format and help by hdtv broadcast in the US, will sell like hot cakes here.

 

[Per Johnny]

Quote:

Originally posted by Richie Duroseau The success of DVD has generated an enormous interest in home-cinema versus going out to the movie theater. That thing is going to grow some more and I predict that high resolution video, no matter the format and help by hdtv broadcast in the US, will sell like hot cakes here.

I surely hope so, but I dont belive it. The mainstream of the population are very selective of what the use their money on, and dvd will fullify their needs. And dvd is the biggest cash-cow for the industry ever, and they will be slow to promote anything else.


If I am wrong, I will be even more happy than you.


Per Johnny

 

[RISUG]

I'm hoping Sony comes out on top.


History dictates they won't, despite the odds being better this time than they were all the other times.


But hey, we now live in a world where the Red Sox have won their first World Series since 1918.


Therefore, anything is possible.


(I'm a Yankees fan by the way.)

 

[Chris Rein]

Quote:

Who's going to make HD-DVD players besides Toshiba? Who even owns anything by Toshiba? I never have. I don't believe anyone I know currently has anything from Toshiba either.

What a knee-jerk comment! Um, you know that little thing you have called a DVD player, and those little things called DVDs? Well, thank Toshiba for that my friend. They started it off, and look who all came along. Same could be said for Warner and MGM!

 

[Wunderchu]

New Line Cinema is now also in the HD DVD camp

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/...how/939740.cms

http://olympics.reuters.com/audi/new...toryID=6940952

http://www.tmcnet.com/usubmit/2004/Nov/1096898.htm






(found those links from here: http://news.google.ca/nwshp?gl=ca&ned=ca&topic=t )

 

[tm22721]

Why go out on a limb and predict what is unpredictable ?


Just sit back and enjoy the fray, consumers always win in the end. Although early adopters may not.

 

[jsaliga]

Quote:

Originally posted by Version Blu-Ray - Sony, Columbia Tristar (Sony), MGM (Sony)

And to that list add Fox, as reported in WSR #91.


--Jerome

 

[Dean Roddey]

It just seems to me that, given it's initial market, i.e. people who know the difference between technical capabilities, that as long as both have a good selection of content, that the technically superior one will win. If it was a matter of one could get here a lot faster than the other and have far superior content, that might turn the tables towards the less technically manly product. But it doesn't look like that will be the case, and therefore I'd have to predict that blu-ray will win because everyone knows it is technically superior now that the codec issue is settled.


In this crowd, I don't think that the initial difference in cost will make a big difference, and Sony (et al) might also eat some of that cost to keep the price down until the volume ramps up, in order to undermine some of that price advantage, and assume they'll make the money up on the players. I dunno, but if I were them, I'd be thinking along this line at least somewhat.


But I had an option between a $500 first gen HD-DVD player and $25/disc titles and a $750 first gen blu-ray player and $30/disc titles, I'd go for blu-ray because it's the better long term solution, IMHO. Of course this assumes I had the money to buy either of them, which I don't. But if I did, I'd go with what I felt was the technically better long term solution. The price differential would have to be worse than that before I'd even think about the going the other way.