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 http://www.thedigitalbits.com/#mytwocents

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Well... it's certainly been an interesting 24 hours around here, folks.While we spent the morning and part of the afternoon yesterday up in L.A. for a special feature story that we're working on for you, rumors broke online that Universal was considering going HD format neutral, and that they'd being supporting both Blu-ray Disc as well as HD-DVD with movie titles. That would mean that every major Hollywood studio would finally be releasing Blu-ray Disc titles, and it would effectively end the format war. We received dozens of mostly thrilled (but also a few panicked) e-mails from enthusiasts of both formats asking us if the rumor was true.


We've said before that The Digital Bits would welcome a move like this by Universal. This format war just isn't good for anyone, and Universal would instantly become the good guy to both retailers and consumers alike by ending it. People waiting for the war to end before jumping into high-def could finally do so worry free with Blu-ray, and those who already enjoyed HD-DVD could no doubt still enjoy new releases on that format as well (it's unlikely that every HD-DVD supporting studio would stop supporting the format entirely even if Universal went neutral). Everybody wins. Such a move would also be smart for Universal economically. They have to be watching the numbers like everyone else, and the numbers don't lie. Blu-ray is already outselling HD-DVD in software by at least a 2 to 1 margin, and there are several cheaper name-brand, fully-featured BD player models on the way. On top of that, when you consider that AACS has already been compromised, the extra layer of protection afforded by Blu-ray's (soon to be finalized) BD+ starts to look more attractive to the studios (for better or worse). Most indicators seem to confirm that Blu-ray has all the momentum right now. And we know that Universal has, rather prudently, investigated Blu-ray authoring and replication. All of that said, however, the rumor sounded just a little too convenient to be true. And strangely, it also sounded just a little too "truthy" not to have at least a grain of truth to it.

We've made our own inquiries with Universal, but in the meantime the folks Engadget have reported that they've heard directly from Universal Studios Home Entertainment president Craig Kornblau that the rumors are false. Interestingly, however (judging by their post on the subject), even they don't seem to quite believe it. We'll certainly keep our eye on this fascinating situation to see what comes of it. When we hear back from Uni ourselves, we'll be sure to let you know.

By the way, while we're talking HD format support, we've spoken once more with reps from 20th Century Fox Home Entertainment, who say in no uncertain terms that their studio is NOT wavering in its support of Blu-ray Disc, despite the continued delay of those catalog BD titles (from both Fox and MGM) that were first announced at CES in January. Some of our other industry sources have informed us that work IS ongoing on additional, as-yet-unannounced catalog titles for BD release from both studios, which seems to confirm Fox's on-the-record statements to us. Given this, we do fully expect all of these titles to be rescheduled and announced for release in the weeks ahead. We would certainly expect Fox to have something more substantial to say on the subject at the EMA Expo in July, if not sooner. Rest assured, we will post the official details here as soon as they're available.


Okay, we'll be back this afternoon with a big Rumor Mill update... and maybe a review or two as well. Stay tuned...

~Josh
 

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Thanks for posting that. Good read.
 

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I'm glad to see another unbiased article on the HD war.

lol
 

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Yeah, crazy that Universal would want to triple their sales! Why isn't Bill giving equal time to the thought that Fox wan'ts to add 50% to their sales?


Sorry, didn't mean to introduce facts into the hystrionics...
 

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Seriously.
 

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Since the BD studios Sony, Disney and Fox have been flakey lately, this would be good news for the format. I support for HD DVD and BLU RAY and would still buy Universal on HD DVD only. But for those who are BD exclusive, Universal has done exceptional work with HD DVD. I would recommend HIGHLY King Kong, Out of Sight, The Bourne Supremacy, Smokin' Aces, Children of Men, Seabiscuit, Backdraft, Casino, and Jet Li's Fearless to start, if they are released on BD. They have been some of my 'reference' titles I use to show people to HD format.
 

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Universal is waffling while releasing their 100th HD disk on HD DVD, while Fox is strong as ever BD while they continue to pull back....Same titles DO NOT sell 2X on BD. If anything same titles show that ANY studio can benefit from being neutral. Avg. sales per title are appox. the same for both formats for any studio.


Evidence shows that common titles sell about the same on both formats, despite the massive markeing, PR and bribery that the BDA is engaging in....and can't sell 70K disks on a consistent weekly basis despite having up to 5M players on the market - basically BD sales are flat all year. So, given that BD cannot appeal to the masses with almost all studio and hardware and retail support means that the format is not what people want and is forced down folks throats - time for studios to go neutral and see if HD DVD is more easily digestable by the public. BD sure isn't cutting it, even if it is 20K to 30K units ahead each week.....the market size for both formats are even for all practical purposes.


Digital Bits just shows what happens when you are become assimilated into a PR machine.....sad sad sad. But typical for 3rd tier publicity seeking editors.
 

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The issue has very little to do with the small numbers that both formats are currently achieving (individually or together) and the prospects of massive adoption and huge sales that will come with the end of the format war.


-- Fox cannot hope to end the format war by becoming neutral. In fact, such a move by Fox (alone) probably just prolongs the format war.

-- Universal would (IMHO) almost immediately end the format war by going neutral. This is a unilateral move they can make and it depends on no other corporate entity. You can see this by the posts on these boards yesterday with the rumors that appeared.


My prediction is that nextgen penetration will grow to 10% by next year if the format war ends this July. This is based on current sales trends of HDTV equipment and expected increases we will see this next Christmas.


The early-middle and middle adopters are still stuck waiting for the format war to end.


Univeral is doing a terrific job generating a lot of catalog titles for HD DVD. Each such title that they ship simply assures that their profits will be minimal, because all they are accomplishing is keeping HD DVD in the game.
 

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Universal is waffling while releasing their 100th HD disk on HD DVD, while Fox is strong as ever BD while they continue to pull back....


Evidence shows that common titles sell about the same on both formats, despite the massive markeing, PR and bribery that the BDA is engaging in....and can't sell 70K disks on a consistent weekly basis despite having up to 5M players on the market - basically BD sales are flat all year. So, given that BD cannot appeal to the masses with almost all studio and hardware and retail support means that the format is not what people want and is forced down folks throats - time for studios to go neutral and see if HD DVD is more easily digestable by the public. BD sure isn't cutting it, even if it is 20K to 30K units ahead each week.....the market size for both formats are even for all practical purposes.


Digital Bits just shows what happens when you are become assimilated into a PR machine.....sad sad sad. But typical for 3rd tier publicity seeking editors.




Great post plaz
 

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Quote:
Originally Posted by ottscay /forum/post/0


Yeah, crazy that Universal would want to triple their sales! Why isn't Bill giving equal time to the thought that Fox wan'ts to add 50% to their sales?


Sorry, didn't mean to introduce facts into the hystrionics...


Fox could add 100% to their sales by just releasing on Blu-ray.


The catch is, they gotta RELEASE.
 

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Quote:
Universal is waffling while releasing their 100th HD disk on HD DVD, while Fox is strong as ever BD while they continue to pull back....


Evidence shows that common titles sell about the same on both formats, despite the massive markeing, PR and bribery that the BDA is engaging in....and can't sell 70K disks on a consistent weekly basis despite having up to 5M players on the market - basically BD sales are flat all year.

Happen to have the evidence on hand?...


especially the part about 5 million players...
 

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so pretty much fox says they have no plans on switching sides

and pretty much universal says the same thing.


so whats new?
 

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Originally Posted by JE3146 /forum/post/0


Happen to have the evidence on hand?...


especially the part about 5 million players...

Well, according to nexgenwars.com, there have been well over 3 million pS3s sold. So that would mean there would have to be less than 2 million additional standalone BD players in the home.
 

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Point is when you can't sell 70K disks every week with 5M players, it's not the fault of Universal. When the number of PS3 has doubled in the last 4 months, but the sales per week is flat - it does not Show that BD is winning the format war!


HD DVD essentially needs one studio like Fox to turn neutral and the dominoes will fall. Sony knows that BD is hanging by a thread - the format is a white elephant. It is not viable, not when HD DVD provides the same or better functionality at a fraction of the infrastructure and development cost. If HD DVD were not backed by such a strong consortium - MSFT, Intel, GE, WB, I can see BD overcoming their economic disadvantage by overpowering Toshiba and winning through money and PR. Now, they can't. Digital Bits oddly never talks about the renewed vigor that even WB is shoing towards HD DVD....to say nothing of Universal and retailers such as CC are slowly but surely accepting the fact that HD DVD will be around.


Today I was at the Best Buy in NYC - 5th Ave (Typing this on the train back to DC) and 42nd st. They have an HD DVD display right in the center of their HT section. Hooked up to a 1080p Panny plasma playing the new HD DVD promo.....et tu BB?
 

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Originally Posted by Iggster /forum/post/0


so pretty much fox says they have no plans on switching sides

and pretty much universal says the same thing.


so whats new?

Same **** different day
 

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Quote:
Originally Posted by Iggster /forum/post/0


so whats new?

Nothing. Except, apparently, the illogical spin that Universal is being silly for not going neutral but somehow Fox is cool for not doing same.
 

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Originally Posted by plazman /forum/post/0


Point is when you can't sell 70K disks every week with 5M players, it's not the fault of Universal. When the number of PS3 has doubled in the last 4 months, but the sales per week is flat - it does not Show that BD is winning the format war!


HD DVD essentially needs one studio like Fox to turn neutral and the dominoes will fall. Sony knows that BD is hanging by a thread - the format is a white elephant. It is not viable, not when HD DVD provides the same or better functionality at a fraction of the infrastructure and development cost. If HD DVD were not backed by such a strong consortium - MSFT, Intel, GE, WB, I can see BD overcoming their economic disadvantage by overpowering Toshiba and winning through money and PR. Now, they can't. Digital Bits oddly never talks about the renewed vigor that even WB is shoing towards HD DVD....to say nothing of Universal and retailers such as CC are slowly but surely accepting the fact that HD DVD will be around.


Today I was at the Best Buy in NYC - 5th Ave (Typing this on the train back to DC) and 42nd st. They have an HD DVD display right in the center of their HT section. Hooked up to a 1080p Panny plasma playing the new HD DVD promo.....et tu BB?


No, the point is you're spewing off fiction as fact.


Lets see some evidence.


Fox has barely released on BD, what makes you think they'd release on HD-DVD?
 

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Originally Posted by bboisvert /forum/post/0


Nothing. Except, apparently, the illogical spin that Universal is being silly for not going neutral but somehow Fox is cool for not doing same.

Or that Universal's statement is somehow suspect and yet Fox's statement should be taken at face value.
 

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I can't post links on my PDA, but Sony said they were on track to ship 6M or so PS3 by the end of March....it's May now. So....assuming they sold most of that. However, if only 3M of 6 or so have sold, then that's not good news either for BD. In any case even with 3M players to sell fewer than 70K disks a week is weak performance....with 5M it's truly pathetic.


There is an entire thread on weekly sales.
 
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