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Discussion Starter · #1 ·
Universal has a very storied history and a deep catalog of classic movies, but over the last 10 years this studio has made mistake after mistake, followed by a moderate success that is sandwiched between two more mistakes.


After this week's disappointing $5.9 million box office opening of Georgia Rule's, Universal's $60 million venture with Lindsay Lohan, Universal is strapped for cash. GE is not the type of company that continues to throw money at unprofitable divisions, instead they sell them off. To make the books look the best they can, they need to generate revenue, and IMO, that will be by opening their catalog for release on Blu-Ray in 2008. If they could sell over 100 titles on Blu-Ray and generate a modest $50 million in revenue, it would make their catalog look a little more robust to potential suitors.


I don't know all the details with GE's partnership with Vivendi, but IMO, Evan Almighty will be the catalyst for Universal releasing its movies on Blu-Ray or not. If it can't make back it's $350 million in estimated costs/over-runs/marketing, the Blu-Ray titles will come and come soon.
 

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Georgia Rule will end the format war?


Somehow, I doubt Universal releasing on Blu-ray and taking advantage of that 1% of disc sales is somehow going to make life easy.


Bourne Ultimatum, Knocked Up, and I Now Pronounce You Chuck and Larry should all be Summer hits and profitable. They also have Charlie Wilson's War and American Gangster this Fall as potential Oscar contenders.
 

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I thought Vivendi owned Universal now. Isn't that the case ?
 

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Actually the HD-DVD exclusive studios are having a really hard time.

Quote:
"Grindhouse" Flop May Not Make It To British And Australian Theatres


April 26, 2007 12:00 p.m. EST



Richelle Putnam - AHN Staff Writer

London, England (AHN) - The film, "Grindhouse," starring its director, Quentin Tarantino, may not make it to British or Australian audiences.


The release dates of "Grindhouse" in Australia on May 10, and in British theatres on June 1, have been put on hold. The failing film, which cost an estimated $100 million and only brought in $23 million during its first three weeks, is being scrutinized by producers Bob and Harvey Weinstein in an attempt to save the film.


The "failed film" experience has been humiliating for director Quentin Tarantino, a Cannes International Film Festival Palme D'Or winner for "Pulp Fiction." According to News.com, Barry Norman, British film critic, said, "This doesn't often happen to a big-name director."


In a London Times article, Weinstein said it was all about timing: "We didn't educate the South and the Midwest. Our research showed that the length kept people away. It was the single biggest deterrent. We originally intended to get it all in at two hours, 30 minutes. That would've been a better time."
http://www.allheadlinenews.com/articles/7007164546


This film has been touted by some HD-DVD owners here as being the next big blockbuster exlcsive that may come to HD-DVD.



Compare this to Spider-man 3 at $622 million in 10 days.
 

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I am looking forward to the new Bourne (just saw the trailer on HDNET last night), along with Knocked Up, and Evan Almighty.


Universal isn't going anywhere.


Love my Universal HD too.
 

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Wow, what a stupid stupid thread...
 

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Quote:
Originally Posted by rdjam /forum/post/0


This seems a bit of a "rumour and speculation" thread about the "demise" of Universal?


As such doesn't it really just represent a "baseless" attack on Universal because of their HD DVD -exclusive position?

This thread is discussing the failure of high profile theatrical product from HD DVD supporting studios and contemplating, reasonably, that these studios will need to consider additional revenue streams to recoup their investments.


No rumours that I saw. Just some mild speculation based on real evidence.


It does seem that the Blu-ray studios (and neutrals) have all the blockbusters sewn up this year. When the cash is flooding in at the theatre's you can be a bit more relaxed about your home video markets.
 

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I can see the headlines now Lindsey Lohan brings down Universal Studios.



And please explain how fledgling formats that have a 1% share of the market is going to help Universal's balance sheet.


This is reaching in the extreme.


The response from GE would be to force sell offs of divisions or sale of catalog rights to other studios.


GE could care less about HD DVD or Blu Ray. There's no money in it for them. Universal does not control any of the patents.
 

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Quote:
Originally Posted by SimpleTheater /forum/post/0


Universal has a very storied history and a deep catalog of classic movies, but over the last 10 years this studio has made mistake after mistake, followed by a moderate success that is sandwiched between two more mistakes.


After this week's disappointing $5.9 million box office opening of Georgia Rule's, Universal's $60 million venture with Lindsay Lohan, Universal is strapped for cash. GE is not the type of company that continues to throw money at unprofitable divisions, instead they sell them off. To make the books look the best they can, they need to generate revenue, and IMO, that will be by opening their catalog for release on Blu-Ray in 2008. If they could sell over 100 titles on Blu-Ray and generate a modest $50 million in revenue, it would make their catalog look a little more robust to potential suitors.


I don't know all the details with GE's partnership with Vivendi, but IMO, Evan Almighty will be the catalyst for Universal releasing its movies on Blu-Ray or not. If it can't make back it's $350 million in estimated costs/over-runs/marketing, the Blu-Ray titles will come and come soon.

Speculate much?
 

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Quote:
Originally Posted by krinkle /forum/post/0


Compare this to Spider-man 3 at $622 million in 10 days.

Yes, because it's fair and reasonable to compare Grindhouse with Spider-Man 3.





This thread is silly. Universal just released a flop. Big deal... it happens. It doesn't mean "the end of the studio as we know it" or even the end of HD neutrality.


Lions Gate has -- in recent months -- put out such flops as The Condemned, Delta Farce, Happily N'Ever After, and Pride. Are *they* going neutral or packing it in as a studio?


IQs seem to drop across the forums whenever either side has the slightest bad news.
 

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The movie business is such. Uni's home video division is one bright spot so far...If GE decides to sell Uni, the likely buyer will be either WB with MSFT or Fox. JMHO.


If they decide to split up NBC and Uni's movie division, Sony would like to buy NBC. JMHO. MSFT could end up with Uni's catalog or even a part of Unis movie production business.


It is true that GE will sell any business that is not #1 or #2 in their space and if they do not make an acceptable margin. The opportunity cost is high for GE.


The HD DVD and BD markets are too small to make any difference. The BD total software market is around $50M or so this year if we assume an avg. of 50K disks sold each week and the studios get an avg. of $20 per disk. That would be across all studios for the entire year. So, factoring in start up costs etc, it just doesn't make sense to branch out in a low growth, low revenue area, IF money is tight.
 

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Discussion Starter · #17 ·

Quote:
Originally Posted by fozziwig /forum/post/0


This thread is discussing the failure of high profile theatrical product from HD DVD supporting studios and contemplating, reasonably, that these studios will need to consider additional revenue streams to recoup their investments.


No rumours that I saw. Just some mild speculation based on real evidence.

Thanks for seeing this for what it is - some speculation, but no "rumor making".


Evan Almighty is being seen as a potential flop in Hollywood - with two movies switching their openings from PotC3 and Harry Potter 5, to Evan Almighty's. There is so much money locked up in Evan that a failure will mean someone is getting fired. Georgia Rule's is not going to send Unviersal to the Blu-Ray camp, but it is yet another financial mistake that is increasing the cash problem at Universal. Where is Universal going to get money to make more movies? They are pouring hundreds of millions into a theme park in the Middle East and they are desperate to find a new hit TV series.


If Evan flops there will be no extra cash to develop new films, so where are they going to find money? I'm speculating they could find an easy $50 million by releasing titles on the Blu-Ray format - and they'll do it quickly.
 
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