[darinp2]

In case the title didn't make it clear, this is about Universal Studios in Japan and whether they will stay exclusive to HD DVD or start releasing content on Blu-ray discs there (either by going neutral or switching sides). This isn't about releases by Universal in the US. And I basically asking for best guesses (unless somebody has some hard information). Sometimes I think it is interesting to see what people here think will happen and then compare that to reality that happens later.


--Darin

 

[dialog_gvf]



 

[dialog_gvf]

About that first choice: "Never!!! They will never release any content on BDs in Japan."


BD has 96% of the market in Japan. If Universal is NEVER going to release on BD there and HD discs are going to take over the market, then logically the first choice means that Universal is exiting the home video business in Japan over time.


Gary

 

[darinp2]



Quote:
Originally Posted by dialog_gvf /forum/post/0


About that first choice: "Never!!! They will never release any content on BDs in Japan."


BD has 96% of the market in Japan. If Universal is NEVER going to release on BD there and HD discs are going to take over the market, then logically the first choice means that Universal is exiting the home video business in Japan over time.

To be fair, people could believe that HD DVD will not get beat by Blu-ray in Japan, that both formats will fail in Japan (get trounced by DVD to the point of being irrelevant for instance), or have some other reason for believing that. I think it will definitely be interesting to see how the war goes in Japan itself though.


--Darin

 

[dialog_gvf]

I was making an assumption that HD discs succeed and slowly take over. If something else dominates our little battles are irrelevant.

The HD DVD folk have often used the "leaving money on the table" argument for neutrality. I would ask: Is Universal going to leave 96% of the Japanese money on the table?


I believe there is a very real possibility that Japan is the reason for Universal going silent recently. The BD recorder sales must have been jarring. They must now be considering what to do there. And that has massive affect on here, obviously, since it means we can import.


Note: Since Japan uses the same 60Hz power frequency as us, and is an NTSC market, there will be none of the 50Hz/60Hz territory incompatibilities with BD titles.


Gary

 

[darinp2]



Quote:
Originally Posted by dialog_gvf /forum/post/0


The BD recorder sales must have been jarring.

It was nice to see some numbers for those. It would also be nice to see numbers for non-recording and non-PS3 Blu-ray players and HD DVD players over there. I have a feeling we won't be getting those though. While Toshiba didn't have a problem telling us that they estimated they had sold over 175k players in North America, I'm not sure they would want us getting the numbers for Japan. It looks to me like over half those 175k+ in NA are XBOX360 add-ons. Do they even sell that in Japan?


Wasn't Toshiba supposed to release an HD DVD recorder in Japan before last year's World Cup (soccer)? Do you know if that ever came out?


--Darin

 

[Elwar]

I voted for Q4 2007, only because I think the trend towards BR will have to be crystal clear by then if it is ever to materialise.


I can easily see the HD disc market being too small for them to ever bother though.

 

[dialog_gvf]



Quote:
Originally Posted by darinp2 /forum/post/0


Wasn't Toshiba supposed to release an HD DVD recorder in Japan before last year's World Cup (soccer)? Do you know if that ever came out?

Xmas Sales in Japan


Yes, the RD-A1, it got 1.5% of the sales (about 1000 units).

Those top two got about 50K (30K/20K revised numbers).


I don't think there are any BD stand-alones on the market in Japan. It is a massively pro-recorder market. And the PS/3 20GB is $427.


Gary

 

[darinp2]



Quote:
Originally Posted by dialog_gvf /forum/post/0

Xmas Sales in Japan


Yes, the RD-A1, it got 1.5% of the sales (about 1000 units).

Those top two got about 50K (30K/20K revised numbers).

Thanks. I was thinking about what Hollywood movies might drive people to start watching HD ROM discs in Japan and found a listing for the top foreign titles in Japan for 2006. It looks like "Letters from Iwo Jima" might have moved into there before the end of the year, but this is what I found ( here ):


1. Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire (11.0 bil. yen)

2. Pirates of Caribbean Dead Man's Chest (10.01 bil. yen)

3. Da Vinci Code (8.9 bil. yen)

4. The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe (6.86 bil. yen)

5. M:i:III (5.2 bil. yen)

6. Mr. and Mrs. Smith (4.7 bil. yen)

7. Flight Plan (3.12 bil. yen)

8. Chicken Little (2.68 bil. yen)

9. World Trade Center (2.4 bil. yen)

10. King Kong (2.35 bil. yen)


I believe "Chicken Little" and the "Pirates" movies have been announced for Japan, so maybe they will help HD ROM discs take off (although in this case BD). Not sure about the others on that list as far as Japan goes. It looks like Universal's "King Kong" did close to $20 million at the box office there. One dollar is around 120 yen.


--Darin

 

[dialog_gvf]

In Tokyo a theatrical movie costs something like $23. Movie theaters are BIG, and real estate is EXPENSIVE.


I wouldn't be surprised if the Japanese revenue for discs is more skewed compared to box office than in North America.


Gary

 

[UxiSXRD]

Given that Japan is Region A Blu-ray, this would quickly allow import of some otherwise HD-DVD exclusive titles.


I don't see how they CAN release in Japan... yet sacrificing that market would hurt and HD-DVD is all but ignored in Japan by my impression... An interesting conundrum.

 

[nataraj]

I think they will do that - if and when - they release on BD everywhere.


Didn't vote because of the presumptuous nature of the poll ....

 

[kjtatum]

Its really really hard to gauge this in a positive light for HD DVD.

 

[plazman]



Quote:
Originally Posted by dialog_gvf /forum/post/0

Xmas Sales in Japan


Yes, the RD-A1, it got 1.5% of the sales (about 1000 units).

Those top two got about 50K (30K/20K revised numbers).


I don't think there are any BD stand-alones on the market in Japan. It is a massively pro-recorder market. And the PS/3 20GB is $427.


Gary

All I can see is that the top selling players were all HD DVD. From the specs of the Panny and Sony recorders it does not even look like they can play BD movie disks AND the Toshiba recorders was almost 2X as expensive as the Panny!


So, one may infer that HD DVD isn't really treating Japan as a high priority market. Therefore, while superficially it does look like BD is doing well, it now appears that the market may be too insignificant for Universal to even care about at this time. But the fact that HD DVD players are selling better than BD players implies that when the market grows and is ready, Universal will be there with their HD DVD titles!

 

[plazman]



Quote:
Originally Posted by kjtatum /forum/post/0


Its really really hard to gauge this in a positive light for HD DVD.

What were you referring to? All the best selling devices that could actually play HD DVD or BD movie disks appeared to be HD DVD devices.


Also, unlike the US, in Japan it looks like HD DVD hardware is priced higher than BD devices....perhaps it is another data point on the importance of low hardware cost.

 

[GoCheese]



Quote:
Originally Posted by dialog_gvf /forum/post/0


About that first choice: "Never!!! They will never release any content on BDs in Japan."


BD has 96% of the market in Japan. If Universal is NEVER going to release on BD there and HD discs are going to take over the market, then logically the first choice means that Universal is exiting the home video business in Japan over time.


Gary

Just curious as to where these figure are that show that BD has 96% of Japan?????

 

[plazman]



Quote:
Originally Posted by GoCheese /forum/post/0


Just curious as to where these figure are that show that BD has 96% of Japan?????

I think he is confusing BD recorder market share with HD DVD/BD player sales. It does show that 96% of the market in Japan is recorder v. Player. I don't believe these BD recorders play BD movies...in other words are these blue laser players? probably not.

 

[kjtatum]

I'm pretty sure the Panny one does play movies. Don't know about the others.

 

[UxiSXRD]

Looks to me like the Sony ones do...


From the google translation of the Sony press release:

http://translate.google.com/translat...language_tools

Here's the original:
http://www.sony.jp/CorporateCruise/P...00610/06-1003/

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sony /forum/post/0


2.

High picture quality & the high sound quality the BD-ROM playback which recorded hi-vision image


It corresponds to the playback of BD-ROM which recorded high picture quality image and the linear PCM sound etc due to the high transfer rate of maximum 40Mbps it exceeds digital hi-vision broadcast. As for image, not only MPEG2, up-to-date animated picture compressed technology MPEG-4 AVC and SMPTE VC-1 standard support. With DVD even with the package media to enjoy the hi-vision image which you could not experience, it reached the point where it can receive. In addition, it corresponds even in the popup menu and the interactive operation with Java. The new operation impression and it is achieved to enjoy the benefit contents.

and

Quote:
Video HDD, BD-ROM and BD-RE ver.2.1/ver.1.0 * 7, BD-R ver.1.1 * 7,

The disk and the DVD video which are recorded with the AVCHD format, DVD-RAM and DVD+RW/+R/+R DL (2 layer), DVD-RW/-R/-R DL (2 layer) (video mode) /-RW (CPRM) /-R (CPRM), DualDisc (the dual disk)

* DVD+RW/+R DL (2 layer) /-RW/-R/DVD-RAM corresponds to also the 8cm disk

What we really need is an asian member to try one out with some commercial titles. Who was that guy with first hands-on on the PS3, anyways?



I really wish they would release those things here. Probably too expensive for me to get one, but I can imagine my dream machine of a PS3 combined with one of these things.

 

[dialog_gvf]



Quote:
Originally Posted by GoCheese /forum/post/0


Just curious as to where these figure are that show that BD has 96% of Japan?????

Xmas season sales

Quote:
No.1 Panasonic DMR-BW200 56.7％ - Recorder

No.2 Sony BDZ-V9 28.3％ - Recorder

No.3 Panasonic DMR-BW100 7.0％ - Recorder

No.4 Toshiba HD-XF2 2.9％ - Player

No.5 Sony BDZ-V7 2.7％ - Recorder

No.6 Toshiba RD-A1 1.5％ - Recorder

No.7 Toshiba HD-XA2 0.6％ - Player

No.8 Toshiba HD-XA1 0.3％ - Player

Those need to be revised, since it was based on 20K sales for the Panny DMR-BW200 and it was actually 30K. 20K for the Sony BDZ.


Gary