When the coupon program ends in March/April, what do you think will happen to the dtv converter box market? Manufacturers would be free to add extra features like SPDIF output. OTOH, demand will drop considerably, manufacturers would not reengineer their products for a the tiny OTA market and will either simply continue using existing designs, or drop out of the market entirely. Retailers are another story. Will they continue to stock the boxes or completely drop them?
I would predict the most of the el-cheapo low quality box makers will exit the market entirely. No more Apex, Magnavox, RCA, GE and their ilk. Best Buy and Circuit City will drop set top boxes from their stores like a hot potato the day after coupon program ends because it cuts into their television/satellite sales. LG/Zenith will no longer have a major outlet to sell their boxes in massive quantities, so they will reluctantly exit the market.
As for the survivors...
Channel Master is already a niche brand and has distributors dedicated to OTA, so the boxes will remain. DTV Pal will remain available at independent dish network dealers and online. It might even get a S-video and SPDIF upgrade. Radio shack will continue to sell STB's so Digital Stream will continue to survive. However given typical Radio Shack prices, the box will now have a $100 - 120 price tag. Hardware/retail stores that sell outdoor TV antennas will begin selling STBs along side them. However the brand they sell will be limited to the vendor they selected for TV antennas, splitters, cables and other antenna hardware. The box will be low quality (think Phillips) unless they selected channel master as their antenna vendor!
One final possibility is the DTV transition and coupon program will become such a fiasco after Feb 2009 that congress will pass an emergency measure extending the coupon program. However, by then box manufacturers have already eliminated most of their tooling and will be unable to produce a new surge of boxes, so the CECB's would be unobtainable regardless.
I would predict the most of the el-cheapo low quality box makers will exit the market entirely. No more Apex, Magnavox, RCA, GE and their ilk. Best Buy and Circuit City will drop set top boxes from their stores like a hot potato the day after coupon program ends because it cuts into their television/satellite sales. LG/Zenith will no longer have a major outlet to sell their boxes in massive quantities, so they will reluctantly exit the market.
As for the survivors...
Channel Master is already a niche brand and has distributors dedicated to OTA, so the boxes will remain. DTV Pal will remain available at independent dish network dealers and online. It might even get a S-video and SPDIF upgrade. Radio shack will continue to sell STB's so Digital Stream will continue to survive. However given typical Radio Shack prices, the box will now have a $100 - 120 price tag. Hardware/retail stores that sell outdoor TV antennas will begin selling STBs along side them. However the brand they sell will be limited to the vendor they selected for TV antennas, splitters, cables and other antenna hardware. The box will be low quality (think Phillips) unless they selected channel master as their antenna vendor!
One final possibility is the DTV transition and coupon program will become such a fiasco after Feb 2009 that congress will pass an emergency measure extending the coupon program. However, by then box manufacturers have already eliminated most of their tooling and will be unable to produce a new surge of boxes, so the CECB's would be unobtainable regardless.