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Discussion Starter · #1 ·
I am putting my bets on Sony to have a dual blue and red laser DVP to be first on the block within 2 years for Digital HD-DVD & Analog DVD. Whats your best call?

:)
 

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Lemme see ...


1.) Minimum of two years for anyone to have Blue-Ray ready for prerecorded material transport, and probably another year or two to make it re-writeable.


2.) D-VHS now with prerecorded materials at the end of the month, but no means of transporting broadcast HD to it so that it works 100%. Also, we are talking magnetic tape, which is evil, short shelf-life, and a pain in the butt to handle chapter-stops, and the return of REWIND!


3.) Someone with enough sense of humor to make a digital laser disc (LDL) measuring 10" in diameter and using current red-laser/DVD MPEG-2 standards only requiring a larger tray for the disc and an elongated read/write head movement arm, but using thicker discs (like LDs) to get around warping. This player would be re-writeable, backwards compatible with traditional 12-centimeter DVDs, music CDs, etc. and use component video interconnects and optical audio.


Which would you prefer NOW? :)
 

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Quote:
Which would you prefer NOW?
I'd love to see someone break the back of the video cartel and come out with an open standard, even if it is 10".
 

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Discussion Starter · #4 ·
If it would have been that easy, Sony would have made their beta cassette as large as a vhs cassette for beta was much better than vhs any day of the week.:)
 

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Good point Hob!!!!

I think a DVD/CD size HD-DVD is possible within 2-3 years.

Panasonic and others have shown prototypes.

If it was compatible with current DVD/CD, FULL HD resolution,

had DVI (!!!) and was priced 3-4k $, I would buy it now.

It could be a niche device for a while. I think many on this

forum would jump at it and hopefully (!!!) more sales and

better manufacturing could make it a mass-market product

sonner than expected...We can HOPE........
 

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What player? None of them.


It will be 8-10 years, at least.


1. Regular DVD is paying off for the dvd player manufacturers, the movie studios, and rental stores.

2. DVD players are selling like hotcakes, and will do so for years, until there are 2-3 in every home.

3. There isn't much HD broadcast content available, nor will the be for years. And years. WRAL in Raleigh is the *only* (according to Sound and Vision mag) local affiliate shooting local news in HD.

4. Very very few people own anything better than an NTSC tv. So very few people could take advantage of an HD-DVD.


Look, I own two HD capable displays, a Dish 6000, and a DVD player. I would love to see HD-DVD soon. But it ain't gonna happen. All the big companies milked the hell out of VHS for decades, and are only now making money on DVD. They aren't going to throw that revenue stream away. No way.
 

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I think some of you are forgetting some important market factors. First, the number of HT enthusiasts are growing at a rapid pace. The number of people into HTs compared to ten (10) years ago is dramatic, and this has a lot to do with a lot more people being able to afford HT equipment and the manufacturers realizing that they can push good equipment to the masses.


For instance, ten years ago it would have been hard as heck to make a profit selling a 65" 16:9 (or even 4:3) RPTV for $3K, let alone one that was HD-ready. Today, they are available from almost every major manufacturer! We like to call this scales of economy. Doh!


First VCRs were something like $3K, but now you can get one for free if you look hard enough. Progressive DVD players three years ago were in the +$1K arena and not sell for sub-$200 arena with a Faroudja processor to boot.


I do not give any weight to the notions that the studios are not willing to go forth on yet another level of definition of prerecorded material for movie A, because JVC has already convinced four studios to do this. This clearly implies they are only concerned will filling their coffers anyway they can, by traditional VHS or DVD, by superbit DVD, by D-VHS, or anything else that is going to be offered.


Also, just because Raleigh, NC only has one HD broadcaster does not mean everyone is in the same boat. Aside from the fact that broadcast HD is a FCC-imposed condition we can't run from, the constantly increasing number of HD broadcasters continues to accumulate. If you want broadcast (OTA) HD, move out of Raleigh. :D


Just as their was a consumer market for LD (LaserDisc) in the presence of VHS, there will be a market for HD prerecorded materials in the presence of DVD. I see the only limiting factors being method of delivery (D-VHS, 12-centimeter solutions by Matsishitsu, Constellation 3D, and InPhase Technologies, or a digital LD-style), quality of transfer and quality of original, and market introduction costs.


JVC has already learned that they cannot sell a $2000 digital VCR, but they are selling for a hair over half that price. This means there is a market demand for them, just like there was for LDs and DVDs. Its just takes a little (not a lot) of optimism.


Of course, if you are of the party that sees all HD re-writers and HD-level of prerecorded materials as being a waste of your time, then simply ignore this thread and get on with your life. Those with interest create the market that thus far sees newer technologies being introduced every year.


Cheers!


PS My vote is still for a 10" Digital LD with enough capacity to store +2 hours of prerecorded HD material using today's MPEG-2/DVD standards. Screw magnetic tape! :)
 

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Discussion Starter · #8 ·
The article says they can record 26 gigs on a 12 CM disc, man that is 6 gigs bigger then some users 20 gig hard drive. Why would want bigger than smaller. Unless you live in a barn, for the storage of the Paul Bunyan sized discs, next to what I am used to! :)
 

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WanMan,


Well said!!!!!!!!! .................... except for one thing ................ why "Screw magnetic tape!"??
 

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Quote:
Originally posted by WanMan
I think some of you are forgetting some important market factors. First, the number of HT enthusiasts are growing at a rapid pace. The number of people into HTs compared to ten (10) years ago is dramatic, and this has a lot to do with a lot more people being able to afford HT equipment and the manufacturers realizing that they can push good equipment to the masses.



Also, just because Raleigh, NC only has one HD broadcaster does not mean everyone is in the same boat. Aside from the fact that broadcast HD is a FCC-imposed condition we can't run from, the constantly increasing number of HD broadcasters continues to accumulate. If you want broadcast (OTA) HD, move out of Raleigh. :D

You didn't read carefully enough. I said that WRAL in Raleigh is the only station in the COUNTRY that is doing local news in HD.


Sure, there's a few hours each night on CBS in HD. And the occasional program on PBS in HD. But the vast majority of our 500 channel universe in SD, and will be for 10 years. There is no escaping that timeline.


There will be very little content to record, very few sets capable of displaying what little content there is.


Yes, it's increasing. But not fast enough for the big companies to put the HUGE investment necessary into designing, manufacturing, and most expensive of all MARKETING HD-DVD to the masses. Not when they can sit on their butts and sell DVD players and DVD movies like crazy.


For example, and this is only one example - Best Buy in the last year has devoted less and less shelf space to VHS, and more to DVD. Why? Because they are selling more DVD's and less VHS. The market is taking them there. They are not going to devote *any* floor space to HD-DVD's (if there were any available) because that floor space costs them money.


This model is not new. Drug companies have better drugs that are developed, tested, and almost ready to go. But they don't release them until the patents on the old drugs have expired.


The big companies didn't seriously get behind DVD's until there were multiple VHS vcr's in every home in America. That's why laserdisc never really took off - it wasn't really marketed. Why should they spend the money to do so, when they could make money hand over fist selling VHS?


At best, at absolute best, there might be PC HD-DVD-ROM drives in 2 years. But there won't be any standalone set-top boxes for many more years after that. And there won't be any pre-recorded HD-DVD's available for 8 years from now, I'd guess.
 

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Sorry Rick, but I'll allow the market to predict the future as I cannot predict the future. I can only state my desires, recorded facts, etc. I can not make absolutes as you do.


Best Buys will sell anything that brings in margin, and I know this from previously working in their regional management arena. They could care less about what format a new movie is being offered on, but you may be right as JVC has chosen to stay out of retail chain-stores thus far.


Not many, few, are willing to spend $1500 on a VHS tape deck, digital or otherwise, and many resellers are offering it around $1100-1200 after 5 months from release. On May 28th several D-VHS movies are being released, but as JVC has failed to get their product into the retail limelight it is just an example of how not many wants to go back to tape.


Notice how I say 'not many' and not 'no one', because I cannot predict the future. What about you?
 

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Quote:
Originally posted by WanMan


Notice how I say 'not many' and not 'no one', because I cannot predict the future. What about you?
The first post in this thread asked us to predict the future. Obviously none of us can do so with certainty. But it's fun to try. We shall see!


;)
 

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Quote:
Originally posted by rickforrest
The first post in this thread asked us to predict the future. Obviously none of us can do so with certainty. But it's fun to try. We shall see!

;)
Hopefully, its seeing from a 10" disc! Hehe :D
 

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WanMan,


Please note from my post above that 10" discs no way will fit (vertically) on my movie archive shelves!


(D-VHS tapes fit perfectly, however! Hehe)


(Of course you most likely have an environmentally controlled storage chamber for your 10" discs to control laser rot? Another hehe.)
 
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