[chrisreeves]

Why is Sony now able to sell a 16X9 1366X768 LCD projector (the HS10) for well under $3K while all 720P DLP's sold through U.S. dealer channels are at least double that?


Is it that LCD is a more mature technology and they amortize the cost of the LCD chips over more devices?


Or is it something else?


To the moderator: Please don't pull this post and then claim that it is talking about something under $5K MSRP. I am making a COMPARISON between something that is sub $5K and something that is over $5K. Since the discussion on this forum tends to be a little more intelligent than on the sub-$5K forum I wanted to post it here. Thank you.

 

[WanMan]

Why on earth would a dealer or manufacturer LOWER the price on their DLP projectors when there is sufficient idiots out there willing to pay whatever is being asked?


Yes, it is conceivable to that someone could manufacture a product for $1K, selling it to a dealer for $2K, and then in turn have the idiot buyer pay $10K. Not suggesting that any projector costs $1K to make (well, maybe the Hitachi 5500, but I'M JOKING), but you get the drift.


If a manufacturer is happy making a set number of units and can find sufficient buyers at what you or I would consider outrageous pricing then they will continue as normal. Of course, if everyone stopped buying them tomorrow either the prices would drop or the product will simply get pulled from the market.

 

[WatchThis]

u cant even blame TI, since Infocus is selling their X1 DLP pj for under $2k.


so since u can buy 3 X1's for 6 grand, why cant u buy a 3-chip box for that price

 

[DanHouck]

I notice the price of HD1 (first generation) 16:9 DLP has fallen to the same range as, say the PLV 70. I think the answer to your question is that (1), you're comparing very new technology in DLP with older, but still very current, technology in LCD. It also appears to be related as to who is making the DLPs for HT vs. the LCDs for HT. Sanyo has always been pretty competitive on pricing; Marantz, Seleco and Sharp not very.


Infocus is just getting into the fray in a serious way with the new 7200. Given their history as pretty price competitive, I would expect they'll get more aggressive on pricing the 7200 next year. This should put downward pressure on the entire DLP market.


Of course by mid-late 2003, we'll be looking at yet another DLP generation, the HD3 probably with the Archimedes wheel. Back to $10K again.


Dan

 

[blw]

I'm not in that part of the business, but I would guess that this has a lot to do with the volume curves associated with the core technology. DMDs are found pretty much only in projectors as far as I know. While there are a LOT more projectors now than there were, say, five years ago, but I'd say that there have to be less than 100,000 a year going out to individuals and probably less than 2,000,000 a year going to businesses.


Compare that with LCDs, where Dell alone probably is shipping 2,000,000 1024x768 panels this year. OK, they're not precisely the same item, but the core technology, materials science, and probably some component/materials are shared, and that would be enough to account for the differences in end user pricing.


Finally, I haven't seen a current LCD, but to my eye, the DLPs busted through the LCD quality about a year and a half ago. Even my non-picky wife was pretty excited about the really obvoius difference between our Sharp DW100U LCD and the Sharp 9000. I doubt she'd notice the differences between a 9000 and a 10000, for example, from what I've heard.

 

[WanMan]

Dan has made some good points. I see the DLP market a lot like the laptop market in that many manufacturers would rather pull a given product from the market than cater to the low-end market. But, this also assumes that the DMD manufacturer even continues making older DMD devices.


If TI is willing to continue to manufacture HD1's through the end of 2003 then this precludes that either products will appear 'for the cheap', or projector manufacturers will just not care to labor into the inexpensive product market.


Besides, the DMD is not the only component in a projector, and I doubt a 'good' DLP projector has an accumulated manufacturering cost (minus the DMD engine) of $500 for a 16:9 HD1 product--but I could be wrong.

 

[Jason_Els]

"Robby, emergency cancellation Archimedes."


What is the Archimedes wheel? I know what a A. screw is, but a A. wheel I've never heard.

 

[JHouse]

I know! I know! It's because rainbows are extra.

 

[Reed W]

Simple answer - demand. Yes the DLP's cost more than most of us wish they did, but they are selling. Go in to almost any "home theater" shop you can find. What are they showing and pushing - DLP. To the "average" consumer, ( who has never heard of a "rainbow" or doesn't need 2000 lumens), the DLP will be their choice.


(please let's not start another DLP vs LCD debate - that's not the point of this thread)


Reed

 

[neutrino]

Quote:

Originally posted by chrisreeves Is it that LCD is a more mature technology and they amortize the cost of the LCD chips over more devices? Or is it something else?

It's something else. DLP appeals to the high-end home theater crowd, LCD does not. Simple as that. Since the high-end crowd happily plunked down $10k and up on CRT projectors, they now happily plunk down $10k and up for DLP.


It has nothing to do with component costs. Samsung is selling rptvs with the HD2 1280x720 for under $4k (close to $3k, street).


Don't worry though - things are a changin'. The small volume, high margin approach that is the bread and butter for Runco, Marantz, Seleco, etc, is not enough to satisfy CE giants like Samsung and NEC. The big fish have big appetites, and to satisfy those appetites will take big volume. Which means lower prices. Not as soon as I'd like... but soon...

 

[Rgb]

...Because DLP is the exotic speaker cable of the front projector world.



(running for cover )

 

[QQQ]

Quote:

Originally posted by chrisreeves Since the discussion on this forum tends to be a little more intelligent than on the sub-$5K forum...

Quote:

Originally posted by WanMan Why on earth would a dealer or manufacturer LOWER the price on their DLP projectors when there is sufficient idiots out there willing to pay whatever is being asked?

Chris:


So after reading WanMan's thoughtful and substantive analysis, do you take your statement back?

 

[chrisreeves]

oh shut up you ninni. i'm trying to have a high minded, thoughtful conversation here.

 

[JHouse]

Two and a half years ago, when if first learned of this forum and that affordable front projection existed and was practical, I did my preliminary research. The reliability, apparent simplicity, elegance and fill factor of DLP made me think it was the wave of the future. I fell in love with what I considered to be the best technology. Saw the original Dreamvision 500 and was wowed that such a little box could make such a good picture. I had seen a couple of big CRT's before, but they obviously weren't up to snuff. This DLP thing was the answer! So a bought a DLP sight unseen. Loved it.......until I saw the color, contrast, brightness and fill factor of a Sanyo MLA LCD. The difference was huge. So to me, just like the CRT guys are certain that their dinosaurs are a mature technology that can't currently be beaten, I think LCD is mature in that same way. And quite the value. I would think a 3 chip DLP with the new chips would be incredible on contrast and fill. If they can also do the colors and brightness of the best LCD's that will be fantastic, assuming they are also price competitive.

 

[JJay]

Quote:

Originally posted by chrisreeves Why is Sony now able to sell a 16X9 1366X768 LCD projector (the HS10) for well under $3K while all 720P DLP's sold through U.S. dealer channels are at least double that? Is it that LCD is a more mature technology and they amortize the cost of the LCD chips over more devices? Or is it something else?

I come from the world of retail golf, which also caters to the wealthier crowd. I would guess that the high-end pj industry is similar to the high-end club makers--price is much more representative of their consumer's high price point than manufacturing cost of product. The problem for manufacturers is that this high price point is fluid. As new products from other known manufacturers come to market at, usually, lower price points, consumers are apt to lower their high price point.


In the golf world, when Cleveland and Cobra introduced $299 drivers, it became tough to sell Callaways at $449-499. Now new drivers that used to come out at $500 and more enter the market at $399 (all prices street prices). I would guess the same is happening in the pj world where some very nice new pjs have come out recently with good pricing/performance. I would also guess that over the next few years the intro point of high end pjs (except for the exotic, which also still exists in golf) will gradually fall. I suggest this will have more to do with following their target markets willingness to pay than any cost factors such as economics of scale, etc....

 

[darinp]

JJay,


I think your golf analogy is pretty good. It seems like these lower priced LCDs are going to be putting some pressure on the DLPs here. I still prefer the DLPs, but some of those LCDs aren't far behind (especially something like the AE300 that gets rid of screendoor).


Maybe this has already happened, but I could see where if golf all of a sudden becomes very popular with people making $20k to $60k then you start to see more pressure at those lower price points. I expect to see the same thing here and I'm hoping that ESPN-HD is one of the things that does it. I can see a lot of sports fans being willing to pay $3k for a 720p projector next summer and fall when they can watch them on ESPN-HD. Now $7k is a whole different matter and I can envision sales being many multiple times larger for $3k than $7k. Somebody is going to want to capitalize on this situation and I'm hoping this really puts some good pricing pressure out there. Something with the quality of the InFocus 7200 even at about $4k could get some really nice volumes later next year. At $3k I think a lot of sports fans would just get out the credit card without pondering it too much. For some reason I just think that under $3k is a magic point kind of like "under $20" is for some items.


Who will get the contract for "The Official High Definition Home Projector of ESPN-HD"?


--Darin

 

[cmarkey]

Never forget this..."Something is WORTH, what someone will PAY"

 

[David Guill]

Quote:

"Something is WORTH, what someone will PAY"

But if there are fewer who are willing and ABLE to PAY is the something Worth Less or Worthless?

 

[MelonheadIII]

chrisreeves......I've got a horse you could borrow.

 

[neutrino]

Quote:

Originally posted by darinp I expect to see the same thing here and I'm hoping that ESPN-HD is one of the things that does it. I can see a lot of sports fans being willing to pay $3k for a 720p projector next summer and fall when they can watch them on ESPN-HD. Now $7k is a whole different matter and I can envision sales being many multiple times larger for $3k than $7k. Somebody is going to want to capitalize on this situation and I'm hoping this really puts some good pricing pressure out there. Something with the quality of the InFocus 7200 even at about $4k could get some really nice volumes later next year. At $3k I think a lot of sports fans would just get out the credit card without pondering it too much. For some reason I just think that under $3k is a magic point kind of like "under $20" is for some items. Who will get the contract for "The Official High Definition Home Projector of ESPN-HD"?

Absolutely spot-on. I was thinking myself that it would be gamers and the LOTR crowd (young, obsessive, geeky) that would form the next "wave" of front projection buyers, but your guess is much better. There are at least 5 times as many sports junkies as gamers & geeks. And their primary needs in a display are:


- maximum possible screen size

- high def

- spouse approval factor (saf)


The current "display of choice" for the ESPN demographic is an rptv. This has two major failings: a big,monolithic 24" deep box tends to have very low saf, and even a 65" screen isn't really big enough for a true sports junkie.


Enter front projection. No big ugly box. Screen as big as your wall. No contest.


It will need to be bright - gotta be able to see those nachos, so a little ambient light is a must. But around 2000 lumens should be sufficient. Something like the Sanyo PLV-70 would be perfect. Black level isn't a concern for sports, so I see LCD being the technology of choice for the ESPN projector. It's also cheaper than DLP at a given resolution, and will likely continue to be so for at least a few years.


Darin, you are absolutely right. When you can buy a PLV-70 for $2999.95 at Circuit City, those credit cards are gonna be flyin'.


And if we're lucky, DLP will manage to get some of that action, and prices will be forced down across the board.