[Amiable-Akuma]

See topic. I love/own both formats. Am wondering what should we expect regarding the war and HD media over the next year or 400 days or so. Try to keep it realistic but then again opinions, predictions, and speculation are fine. Just say what you honestly think.


Off the top of my head, I'd have to say that:

-No other companies alter their allegiances and that for the most part HD DVD still receives a very significant chunk of good exclusives between now and the end of next Jan.

-However, the amount of releases in general to HD DVD will be clearly less than in '07 with the HD DVD exclusive studios deciding to slow down a bit

-Warner will not rush to re-release many of their currently HD DVD exclusive titles on BD, with the exception of Batman Begins and one or two others. They will instead focus on new releases, making them loaded with IME/etc and able to jive with profile 1.1.

-We still won't have even a semi-affordable dual-format player that operates the way everyone would want it to (fast/smooth/well) by this time next year

-Q1 '09 is the period where we finally start to see all companies on both sides aggressively trying to move things to a unified BD format for good

-It will then take at least another year from there to see formerly HD DVD exclusives start to be re-issued on BD as the newly converted studios will likely focus on new releases. And in fact, we may never see such titles get a BD re-release - and/or at least not with the same exact specs and features that we would have wanted to see ported from the HD DVD version.


~Does this sound about right? Or what do you think?

 

[Jiffylush]

1 - Both companies still producing on HD DVD will be releasing titles on BD before the end of the year. I don't think they will abandon HD DVD, but you never know.


2 - Blu-ray will start to greatly outpace HD DVD in software sales, and from here on out it will also start to greatly outpace HD DVD in hardware sales. (even without counting the ps3)

 

[Kork]



Quote:
Originally Posted by Jiffylush /forum/post/12893816


1 - Both companies still producing on HD DVD will be releasing titles on BD before the end of the year. I don't think they will abandon HD DVD, but you never know.


2 - Blu-ray will start to greatly outpace HD DVD in software sales, and from here on out it will also start to greatly outpace HD DVD in hardware sales. (even without counting the ps3)

I agree with you on number 1. I think the deciding factor will be the pressure from retailers. As far as number 2 goes it's already happening.


3 - HDM will continue to grow at the same pace it did in 2007. I think the idea of giving away HDM players with HDTV is the best way to stimulate consumers interest... hopefully retailers will do their job to educate people about HD (be it for content provider, connections required etc...)

 

[oztech]

i think a marketing campaign will increase for blu-ray to capture the holiday buying

season for christmas 08 which if you think about it thats 8 months away.

 

[dhodory]



Quote:
Originally Posted by oztech /forum/post/12894199


i think a marketing campaign will increase for blu-ray to capture the holiday buying

season for christmas 08 which if you think about it thats 8 months away.

I'd go a step further and say that Holiday 2008 is pretty close to a "do or die" season for HDM in general. If we don't see HDM starting to make significant market share (think 5%, 7%, 10%) gains versus DVD, it may be the beginning of HDM being forever a niche product.

 

[teiresias]

I don't know if I'd consider Christmas '08 "do or die" time for HDM in general. I mean, DVD came onto the scene not too long before the HDTV market started to come into existence. Now that we're getting closer to the ubiquitous use of HD resolution in broadcast/cable television that transition is almost complete. I don't think television will see a change in their broadcasting standards anytime soon, so the use of 720p, 1080i, and 1080p will be pretty solidified for a while, giving HDM a longer lifespan than DVD I'd imagine.


I could be dead wrong though.

 

[ca1ore]

'Monkeys and Typewriters' - so here's my stab ....


January/February 2008 - BR continues to outsell HDDVD 4:1 prompting ever more desperate marketing and promotion deals from Toshiba. Retailers continue to see heavy HDDVD returns. Universal continues to claim support for HDDVD right up until the day they don't ....


March/May 2008 - Best Buy announces that they will be discontinuing HDDVD in their stores, although they will continue 'legacy' support online. Paramount announces that they will be switching back to BR around mid-year. Circuit City can't decide.


June/July 2008 - Warner and Paramount end HDDVD production. BR now outselling HDDVD 10:1. Universal HDDVD production slows to a trickle, but no BR support is announced.


August 2008 - Toshiba announces that they are abandonning HDDVD. Universal makes no announcement.


Pure speculation!

 

[ottscay]

1) All major studios releasing on BD buy the end of summer 2008


2) hardware sales trend towards 3:1 for BD NOT counting the PS3 (already over 2:1 for january)


3) Software sales climb from an 80:20 point to 90:10 or higher the next few months


4) Stores stop selling HD DVD standalones by Q3 2008, reductions in software start...last week (Fye) but accelerate throughout 2008.


I agree that holiday 2008 is do or die time for the current HDM formats; consumers only tolerate new media for so long if they fail to catch on. Luckily we look to have this thing toally wrapped up by the end of summer, so there will only be one message leading into the holidays this year.

 

[James R. Geib]

-Sony hires hitman to kill Toshiba exec.

-Sony infiltrates HD-DVD manufacturing facilities, and manages to corrupt thousands of HD-DVD discs. These discs end up in the hands of consumers, who in turn loose confidence in the format.

-Sony pays off even more studios, including Universal and Paramount.

-Sony gets so far in debt from the pay-offs they go belly up, and neither format succeds.

 

[oztech]

or blu-ray could make a great marketing move and release all their new release

titles a month ahead of sd i would think that would boost sales after all we live

in a society of instant gratification.

 

[Mac11700]

Here's what I believe will happen...


The BR group will continue pushing as hard as they are now for a unified format...Movie sales will continue to be strong on both sides..and a improved version of a dual player will be offered...Neither side wants to alienate the bulk of the consumer....who BTW don't buy movies on line...If all HD-DVDs cease to be available...look for SD sales to increase dramatically...For the people who bought these players & movies will be exceedingly PO'd...and most likely won't switch for a long time...Then look for sales in better up converting SD players to increase...especially since they are doing a much better job lately...Look for the satellite companies to really start pushing their DVR's even harder than they are now..and for a bunch of folks to get them...further hurting both formats sales...POD movies sales are increasing...(apparently no one has noticed )...Next year...Look for a new player making both HD DVD & BR ...Both machines will work great.and do more than any on the market today...and make both sides happy...HD-DVD movie sales will increase...because of the availability of HD players being readily available at a reduced rate to the HTPC crowds...and by 4th quarter 08...look for major announcements from both Sony & Toshiba for a unified player that adopts the best from both formats into 1 that changes everything again...from movie production to the players themselves...that will be backwards compatible with what is out on both now...allowing both sides to save face...and save their companies millions...Which BTW...is what they should have done in the first place...


Mac

 

[baronzemo78]

I predict thousands of more threads with people complaining and arguing about the format wars.


Seriously though I think Blu will continue to slowly pull ahead and HD-DVD will fail but not for some time.

 

[MovieSwede]

A new codec container that support HD has arrived that getting extremly popular in the internet community. The studios complain over it but suddenly one CE start and deliver hardware players that support the format. The player start and sell very well and other CE start adding the format in their players aswell. The studios works hard to stop the format, but suddenly one studios offers movies on that format for downloads. It starts to make money on it and other studios start to release their movies aswell.


Just a guess.

 

[slksc]

The continued spread of the recession will decrease sales of all media, and particularly will hit HDM hard. This will hasten the demise of HD DVD, but BD will be hurting also.

 

[Figgie]



Quote:
Originally Posted by slksc /forum/post/12895378


The continued spread of the recession will decrease sales of all media, and particularly will hit HDM hard. This will hasten the demise of HD DVD, but BD will be hurting also.

wha wha what???? OMG someone took notice at the knee jerk reaction of the fed reserve today!!

Glad I was not the only one!

 

[heavyharmonies]

All existing HD-DVD players and discs spontaneously explode.


Fanboys come running here to gloat and rub salt in the wound.


Moderators continue to say "problem? what problem?"


DVD wins out.

 

[coolhand]

HD DVD will see support die by the middle of quarter 2. Universal cites lack of sales and lowered profit margins as an excuse to stay out of the Blu camp for a few more months.


Blu supporters will rejoice and taunt HD supporters.


Word leaks out that HD hardware production has ceased. Last of 3rd gen HD players sells for $99.


Blu supporters will rejoice and taunt HD supporters.


Blu sales will be lackluster through the end of the year. Blu Ray will eventually peak at 12% of SD DVD sales volumes. At ever decreasing price points it becomes clear that the mass market doesn't care about HDM. With only .32% of households possessing TVs that show ANY difference between 1080i and 1080p and .22% having sufficient audio equipment to appreciate "lossless" sound, several key analysts who had forecasted Blu would replace DVD end up living under a bridge after overstating public interest in the medium. Despite "winning" the format war Sony loses its foothold as the #1 gaming platform and underperforms in HDM. Blu-Ray considered a disappointment.


2010: former HD supporters question why 4 years after launch Blu still does not have a player that can rival the XA2.

 

[BagMan]

- Feb 2008, Toshiba announced they are giving away players for free

- Mar 2008, Warner switches back

- Apr 2008, Fox, Disney follow, Best Buy stops selling PS3's or blu-ray

- May 2008, Sony Pictures starts making HD DVD movies


Look, only 4 more months and HD DVD has this thing won, who's with me!

 

[coolhand]



Quote:
Originally Posted by Figgie /forum/post/12895450


wha wha what???? OMG someone took notice at the knee jerk reaction of the fed reserve today!!

Glad I was not the only one!

Knee jerk?? You did see that all the Asia markets went down 5.7-10% YESTERDAY alone right? We would be staring at a -800 point day without the drop. The sky IS falling.

 

[robertw11]



Quote:
Originally Posted by slksc /forum/post/12895378


The continued spread of the recession will decrease sales of all media, and particularly will hit HDM hard. This will hasten the demise of HD DVD, but BD will be hurting also.

HDM apocalypse! Ahhhh!!!