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Discussion Starter · #1 ·
Every single person I talked to claims plasma is dead. All I hear is negative things about them.


"Oh plasmas cause burn in they are inefficient"


"Plasma tv's only last 5 years"


"LCD's look so much sharper, they are the future".


Seems like everytime I bring a friend over there saying "man you should sell that" yet they comment on how good the picture is yet claim that I shouldn't keep a peice of equipment that will only last a "supposed" 5 years.


So my question is what gives? Japan seems to be huge with plasmas and many of the people I talk to over there think they have more of a future moreso than lcds.
 

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I think cell size (most people don't buy the 42"+ panels needed for 1080p with plasma) and the fact that LCD manufacturing is in a much more advanced state are the big reasons the future is heading towards LCD tech. Plasma is better, but it has some big obstacles that can hopefully be overcome.
 

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Discussion Starter · #3 ·
Quote:
Originally Posted by tsb
I think cell size (most people don't buy the 42"+ panels needed for 1080p with plasma) and the fact that LCD manufacturing is in a much more advanced state are the big reasons the future is heading towards LCD tech. Plasma is better, but it has some big obstacles that can hopefully be overcome.
Price is killing me at the moment for both technologys though I own a "edtv" plasma as it was all I could afford at the time. I'm saving up for the 1080p sets but if anything it's funny how circuit city always trys to get me to buy a RPTV, I thought those were dead? Oh I forgot most familys buy them because their "affordable". Guess their just trying to get the next technology ready to replace it.
 

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Quote:
Originally Posted by tsb
I think [...] are the big reasons the future is heading towards LCD tech.
Look at all the plasma sales forcastings (done by independent instances) and you'll notice that you're quite wrong about the future - at least about the short and mid term future. Long term: Nobody knows for sure.
 

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Quote:
Originally Posted by madshi
Look at all the plasma sales forcastings (done by independent instances) and you'll notice that you're quite wrong about the future - at least about the short and mid term future. Long term: Nobody knows for sure.


I'm thinking in terms of a few years. I bet 65"+ LCD panels wll be around 2K by then. I doubt plasma can keep up price wise. RP advances like the SXRD line and next generation DLP sets will also hurt plasma. It's hard to find a better bang for the buck than those two technologies.


Of course plasma sales will increase, prices will drop attracting new customers, but nothing can stop the LCD juggernaut. The increased demand for LCD tech will outpace increased demand for plasma tech for sure.


We haven't even considered SED. Perhaps it will carve another notch out of plasma sales. Plasma isn't dead, but it surely isn't gonna win the race.
 

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@tsb, what you say contradicts every independent forcasts I've seen. Plasma is going to stay cheaper than LCD for at least some more years in bigger screen sizes, as far as I've read. Can you back your claims up? I don't think so.
 

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Only time will tell.


My biggest reason? LCD makers can make huge mothersheets and soon will be making even bigger sheets. LCD has already won under 37". I think these huge manufacturing advantages will put LCD on top with the larger displays within a few years as well. DLP is also going to get much better and ultra cheap very soon.


When 65" DLP sets are going for $1000 and 65" LCD panels are $2000, the average man is going to choose them over plasma IMO. Hell, most of us here will, too. One quarter proves nothing. It's the long term that will show the outcome. I believe MD RP is still taking heat for the poor quality of CRT RP. In time, the average consumer will see the quality. We just have to wait and see who's right. :)


Don't take me wrong. I think plasma is the better display type for quality at the moment, but LCD and MD RP are catching up fast. Can plasma get much better? I'm not sure.


These forcasts really don't mean anything. It's easy to "prove" a point no matter which side you are on. Now LCD is outselling plasma at about 2:1.4 overall. LCD sales are predicted to grow by 50% a year until atleast 2008. Plasma sales are expected to grow at about the same pace until atleast 2007. Plasma is expected to dominate sales of 40"+ screens until 2007 when LCD is expected to surpass plasma in all sizes. So, by 2008 LCD is expected to lead plasma in every category.
 

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Quote:
Originally Posted by tsb
My biggest reason? LCD makers can make huge mothersheets and soon will be making even bigger sheets.
They're currently at 7G Fabs, or something like that, and people say 8G is the last Fab size which makes sense economically, because over that transport of the glass is getting too complicated and expensive. So it's not like they can get bigger and bigger. There's a barrier somewhere, and it's not too far away. What I've read is that both plasma and LCD price drops will begin to slow down in 2008.


Btw, in the same way LCD manufacturers can use bigger sheets, plasma manufacturers can do, too!

Quote:
Originally Posted by tsb
I think these huge manufacturing advantages will put LCD on top with the larger displays within a few years as well.
You seem to ignore that plasma manufacturers aren't standing still, either.

Quote:
Originally Posted by tsb
When 65" DLP sets are going for $1000 and 65" LCD panels are $2000, the average man is going to choose them over plasma IMO.
First of all: Where did you get the idea from that a 65" LCD panel will be $2000 anytime soon? Furthermore: What do you think plasma will cost at the same time? It doesn't make much sense to somehow guess much lower future prices on LCD and then compare them to current plasma prices!

Quote:
Originally Posted by tsb
Now LCD is outselling plasma at about 2:1.4 overall.
Yes, but only thanks to the smaller TV sizes. At 40"+ plasma is outselling LCD about 20:1 or something like that. Sure, that gap will close, since LCD in 40"+ is just really beginning right now...

Quote:
Originally Posted by tsb
Plasma sales are expected to grow at about the same pace until atleast 2007. Plasma is expected to dominate sales of 40"+ screens until 2007 when LCD is expected to surpass plasma in all sizes. So, by 2008 LCD is expected to lead plasma in every category.
"Is expected". Is that just your personal guess? If not, do you have some links to back those claims up?
 

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That's a nice site, thanks for the link. I didn't find any data which backs your claims up, though.


E.g:

http://www.displaybank.com/eng2004/c....php?c_id=1228

Quote:
Overall, the decline in PDP TV prices was more serious than that in LCD TV prices.
Also look at the graphs: 37" LCDs fell to a similar price level as 42" HD plasmas, but in the past few months both behaved somewhat similar in terms of price development. I see no signs that LCD would be cheaper than plasma anytime soon. Btw, have you heard that Panasonic is dropping plasma prices by another 10-20% on August 28th?


I didn't find any forecasts on that site which hinted something like LCD "winning" over plasma in 2008 and later. Did you pull that one out of thin air, or do you have any article or link which backs that up?
 

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The main advantage that LCD has over plasma is resolution.


It'll be interesting to see where prices of 1080p 50" LCDs and 1080p 50" plasmas are in, say, 2008.


65" LCD for $2000? I don't think it'll EVER get there.
 

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Quote:
Originally Posted by madshi
That's a nice site, thanks for the link. I didn't find any data which backs your claims up, though.


E.g:

http://www.displaybank.com/eng2004/c....php?c_id=1228



Also look at the graphs: 37" LCDs fell to a similar price level as 42" HD plasmas, but in the past few months both behaved somewhat similar in terms of price development. I see no signs that LCD would be cheaper than plasma anytime soon. Btw, have you heard that Panasonic is dropping plasma prices by another 10-20% on August 28th?


I didn't find any forecasts on that site which hinted something like LCD "winning" over plasma in 2008 and later. Did you pull that one out of thin air, or do you have any article or link which backs that up?


Like I said, I got the info off many sites, just Google it and you'll find some. That site I did link has info showing LCD sales will be double that of plasma this year and has a higher growth rate. That isn't really winning, but shows a definite trend.


I am not saying plasma will die, just that LCD is and will be king for the next few years.
 

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Quote:
Originally Posted by jrock65
The main advantage that LCD has over plasma is resolution.


It'll be interesting to see where prices of 1080p 50" LCDs and 1080p 50" plasmas are in, say, 2008.


65" LCD for $2000? I don't think it'll EVER get there.


That's one of my big points. I don't see smaller sized 1080p plasmas being economically reasonable compared to LCD.


As for the 2K 65" LCD, we'll have to wait and see. :)
 

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Yes, I also said the PQ is better with plasmas, but the average man doesn't care as much about PQ as we.


I think the days of plasma having a clearly superior picture are numbered as well.
 

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Quote:
Originally Posted by tsb
Like I said, I got the info off many sites, just Google it and you'll find some.
That's an easy way out, isn't it? "Search for yourself, I'm too lazy to proof my point".


Sorry, I did a lot of googling and reading on myself and your claims sound all wrong to me. To me it looks like you understood something wrong or maybe you're just guessing wrong.

Quote:
Originally Posted by tsb
That site I did link has info showing LCD sales will be double that of plasma this year and has a higher growth rate. That isn't really winning, but shows a definite trend.
Have you really read any of my comments? I already said that LCD has higher sales only because it sells ****loads of smaller TVs. That hasn't bothered plasma manufacturers yet and it never will.

Quote:
Originally Posted by tsb
I am not saying plasma will die, just that LCD is and will be king for the next few years.
LCD is king for smaller size TVs. But at 42"+ plasma is currently king - *by far*. Are you refuting that??


Anyway, I'm out of discussion here.
 
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