[DavidML3]

Will they ever get something to compete with Direct Tv. I know they have Baseball ,CollegeFb, and Nba packages.


I live in an aparment complex that doesn't allow sat installation, so for now I am stuck with what ever is locally. Also my Fox hasn't found the light at the end of the tunnel with HD yet so I can only watch highlights in Hd on espn's recap of Sunday football.

 

[blitzen102]

Yes, it's possible.


"Sunday Ticket is coming up for renewal, and it has been speculated that Comcast would try to make a play for the NFL package. While Roberts didn’t talk about that possibility, Carey said it is unlikely that the NFL would want to undermine its broadcast franchise by broadly distributing games on cable.

Carey said DirecTV is in discussions with the league, adding that the direct-broadcast satellite provider will only pay a reasonable price.

Carey added that even if DirecTV lost the contract -- which is exclusive through the 2005 season -- it still has exclusive HDTV rights through the 2006 and 2007 seasons. “HD would give us an angle to play as being the best in Sunday Ticket,†Carey said after the conference."

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showt...cket+exclusive

 

[DavidML3]

That doesn't make since not to allow games available on cable.


More people have and use cable than Sat. My city is flooded with apartment complexes and townhomes that don't allow Sat dishes, but if ST was on cable the local games aren't the only limit but the ability to watch your favorite team every sunday would allow their revenues to go through the roof.


The NFL should be drooling for the chance to get ST into more homes with the cable market.

 

[UUronl]

I think it will only happen if the exclusivity is expunged from the contract. I don't see DirecTV pulling an NBC and balking at the cost. Sunday Ticket is too valuable a sales tool for them.


Once the exclusivity is gone, then the NFL can't really charge as much per licensee compared to an exclusive model. It will be interesting to see how it plays out.

 

[Crash_Corrigan]

Apartment landlords and condo associations can't prevent you from installing an antenna or satellite dish.


You just have to follow the FCC guideslines for installing (you can't mount to the builing structure without permission and you can't drill holes in the wall for example) and you have to have line of sight from a private outdoor space, but apartment dwellers and condo owners can definitely have Directv/Dishnetwork/Voom dishes.


People thought Directv wouldn't keep exclusivity the last time their contract with the NFL came up. People on the board were certain that Dishnetwork and/or cable would get NFL ST. It didn't happen.


It's not out of the question that Directv will pay the bucks necessary to keep exclusivity before cable and other satellite providers even get a chance to bid.

 

[AcuraCL]

Quote:

Originally posted by DavidML3 That doesn't make since not to allow games available on cable. More people have and use cable than Sat. My city is flooded with apartment complexes and townhomes that don't allow Sat dishes, but if ST was on cable the local games aren't the only limit but the ability to watch your favorite team every sunday would allow their revenues to go through the roof. The NFL should be drooling for the chance to get ST into more homes with the cable market.

Yes, but you can't make a contract with "cable" ... Cable is many many different companies. It would take years to make an agreement with each of them ... probably not worth their while. And no single cable operator is probably as big as DirectTV ... or Dish for that matter. DirectTv and Dish are probably the only national-coverage operators and that will give the SundayTicket folks a much larger subscriber base.


It's all about dah money.

 

[jckessler]

Several thread have gone over this, and while there are advantages to moving Sunday Ticket to cable, there are also disadvantages to the NFL, as it reduces the value of the packages that CBS and FOX buy from the NFL. ST brings in hundreds of millions of dollars, but the broadcast deals are worth billions.


Nobody knows what will happen, but there's no guarantee that ST will go to cable, nor is there certainty that ST will not move to cable.

 

[fredfa]

As of June 30th, here were the subscriber counts of the major players:

Comcast 21.47 million subscribers

DirecTV 13.00 million

Time Warner 10.91 million

Echostar 10.34 million

Cox 6.26 million

Charter 6.13 million

Adelphia 5.38 million

Cablevision 2.95 million

Advance/Newhouse 2.14 million

Mediacom 1.49 million

Insight 1.28 million

Cable One 0.71 million


As jckessler points out, there is no certainty what will happen after next season.

What history seems to prove though is that the NFL, simply, will do whatever it can to get itself the most money.

If it makes deals with every cable company, (which as AcuraCL notes, is not an easy thing to do) clearly the value of its NFL ST package with DirecTV diminishes dramatically. Much of that $400 million a year value to D* is its exclusivity.

And making NFL ST available, in effect, to every cable viewer would also severely impact the value of the CBS and Fox packages.

Much of the multi-Billion dollar value to Fox and CBS (although each has admittedly lost more than a billion dollars on this current deal) lies in the added value their O&Os can charge for commercials on Sunday afternoons.

It just isn't as easy as saying "cable" could pay XXX dollars and add the NFL ST package.

 

[Tigerriot]

Just looking at those subscription numbers I think anyone who says that Comcast is not likely to have NFL ST in the next couple years is absolutely kidding themselves.



The NFL will work out a deal with Direct Tv and Comcast for the next contract period. You can bank on that. After that i'm sure the smaller cable companies will also work out their own deal with the NFL. It may not happen at the same time as the big boys though. So people with those providers may be waiting an extra year or so.



The NFL will still make a killing selling the package to Comcast as well as D* and everyone else. They can make just as much money if not more by going that route. It seems like everywhere you turn on this board there is someone trying to convince people that D* is simply going to own the HDTV world for the forseeable future. It's simply not the case and the writing is all over the walls at this point.

 

[DCDeac]

Or to put it another way, it's simply not possible for DirecTV to compensate the NFL enough to warrant their continued lockout of Comcast.


It was possible back when Comcast had no competition - when they believed the Satellite newcomers would never pose an actual market threat. But now... Forget it. Comcast is like Microsoft - if there's a competitive edge to be bought, they'll buy it.

 

[fredfa]

It could happen, I guess.

But you are talking about Comcast paying enough to compensate the NFL for lost money from DirecTV and Fox and CBS.

That would be a very, very big number -- in the billions of dollars.

And in that case, why wouldn't the NFL just put its games on an expanded version of its own NFL network, and sell them directly to consumers, paying a small carriage fee to cable or DBS carriers?

In fact, within five years or so, the NFL could just sell the games directly to consumers via fiber-optic cable.

I always find it amazing how sure of themselves so many on this board are (and how firm their belief in their own theories) without knowing even the basics of the delicate economics and legalities involved in an NFL TV contract.

 

[steverobertson]

Quote:

Originally posted by fredfa It could happen, I guess. But you are talking about Comcast paying enough to compensate the NFL for lost money from DirecTV and Fox and CBS. That would be a very, very big number -- in the billions of dollars. And in that case, why wouldn't the NFL just put its games on an expanded version of its own NFL network, and sell them directly to consumers, paying a small carriage fee to cable or DBS carriers? In fact, within five years or so, the NFL could just sell the games directly to consumers via fiber-optic cable. I always find it amazing how sure of themselves so many on this board are (and how firm their belief in their own theories) without knowing even the basics of the delicate economics and legalities involved in an NFL TV contract.

Very well put as I am sure that 99.9% of us on this board have NO idea as to what will happen.

 

[jckessler]

Quote:

Originally posted by DCDeac it's simply not possible for DirecTV to compensate the NFL enough to warrant their continued lockout of Comcast.

Again, you're not factoring in the CBS and FOX deals. Getting a few hundred million more by selling the package to Comcast (or other cable cos) may be more than offset by the decreased value of the broadcast packages if more people are watching out of market games.


The NFL will do whatever it feels makes the most sense and most money, but ST is a distant second to the deals with the television networks.

 

[rkunces]

Agreed Jckessler as much as ST is one of the most popular premium packages on television those network deals are far great than ST.


For some reason I get the feeling that if Comcast took over either the LA or NYC market then it would be given the oppurtunity to get the package. It seems the NFL will never leave these markets out in their deals in TV.

 

[MnGuy]

This subject has been hashed over and over. The NFL has repeatedly demonstrated its belief that having an exclusive contract with one provider is what it believes is in its best interests. They can extract a great deal for an exclusive deal from DirecTV which pays a lot for the exclusive, without taking too many eyeballs away from the broadcast networks. Since Fox owns D* and also pays the most for Sunday afternoon broadcast rights, I don't see any reason for this sitaution to change. I could be wrong, but I believe that it is not in the NFL's interest to make ST broadly available, and it is not in their interests to yank the exclusive from D*.

 

[NetworkTV]

This topic comes up every so often - and the result is the same: D* always pays the bucks for exclusivity. It's happened before - it will happen again. Anything else is wishful thinking.


This is right up there with all the doom-and-gloom predictions that D* is dropping TiVo. That isn't true either, despite the fact that they will be offering an alternative unit for their customers.

 

[fredfa]

Let's not let logic (or facts as opposed to wishful thinking) interfere with this thread, NetworkTV!

What fun is that?

 

[Ken H]

Quote:

Originally posted by DCDeac Or to put it another way, it's simply not possible for DirecTV to compensate the NFL enough to warrant their continued lockout of Comcast.

Sure it is.


Having said that, it's not out of the question Comcast, or a consortium of cableco's, would get access to NFL ST.

 

[fredfa]

I would like to have someone (perhaps DCDeac or rkunces) to explain exactlky why the financial landscape has shifted so much in the 22 months since DirecTV signed the last (5-year) contract with the NFL.


Here is how DirecTV announced the deal then:

NFL and DIRECTV Extend and Expand Exclusive NFL SUNDAY TICKET Agreement for Five Years

NFL CHANNEL to Launch on DIRECTV

New York, NY and El Segundo, CA Dec 11, 2002-- The National Football League and DIRECTV, Inc., the nation's leading satellite television service provider, announced today a five-year agreement to extend and expand DIRECTV's exclusive rights to carry NFL SUNDAY TICKET, the subscription television package that delivers up to 14 games each week during the NFL season. Financial terms of the agreement were not disclosed.


The agreement includes a commitment to expand services to NFL fans, including the launch of the NFL CHANNEL on DIRECTV as early as next year. The NFL CHANNEL will be the first year-round television programming service fully dedicated to the NFL and the sport of football. The NFL CHANNEL will be available seven days a week, 24 hours a day, on a year-round basis.


DIRECTV will continue to have exclusive satellite television rights to NFL SUNDAY TICKET through 2007 and exclusive multichannel television rights through 2005. In addition, the new agreement gives DIRECTV the opportunity for the first time to offer NFL SUNDAY TICKET subscribers exclusive enhanced technical innovations, including high-definition game telecasts, viewer-selected cameras and replays, and other advanced digital technology.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


So, please explain.

Exactly how did the Comcast/DirecTV dynamic change so drastically in the 22 months since then (except that DirecTV has closed in substanitally on Comcast's once seemingly insurmountable subscriber advantage) that a change in the NFL ST package is not only possible, but in the words of rkunces: "...it's simply not possible for DirecTV to compensate the NFL enough to warrant their continued lockout of Comcast.."

 

[DP1]

Quote:

Originally posted by fredfa What history seems to prove though is that the NFL, simply, will do whatever it can to get itself the most money. If it makes deals with every cable company, (which as AcuraCL notes, is not an easy thing to do) clearly the value of its NFL ST package with DirecTV diminishes dramatically. Much of that $400 million a year value to D* is its exclusivity. And making NFL ST available, in effect, to every cable viewer would also severely impact the value of the CBS and Fox packages. Much of the multi-Billion dollar value to Fox and CBS (although each has admittedly lost more than a billion dollars on this current deal) lies in the added value their O&Os can charge for commercials on Sunday afternoons. It just isn't as easy as saying "cable" could pay XXX dollars and add the NFL ST package.

Couple things. First off, I absolutely agree that the bottomline is the NFL will definitely do what it deems is in it's own best interest.


What I dont see is the logic behind if they would open it up to Comcast (for example) thered be the fear that a massive amount of new subs would dramatically devalue the deals with the Networks. To begin with, there wouldnt be some massive amount of new subs. No more so than existing D* subs that could just go ahead and sign up and get it any time they wanted to.


In other words, if something less than 2 million of D* subs actually buy NFL-ST, whats makes a person think that decidedly more than that would sign up to it from Comcast? Why would the NFL worry that 2 or 3 million Comcast subs might be on it like white on rice if it were available? Theres like 11 million D* subs that havent bought the package. Is the NFL purposely trying to keep the sub numbers low to appease the Networks? Well ok fine, I actually might believe that if every D* sub automatically got the NFL-ST as part of their subscription. But since theres over 11 million that dont (but that theoretically could with a simple phone call), why would it be ok (from the NFL's perspective) if all those households suddenly subbed to NFL-ST but not for a few million of them to come from cable instead?


As far as why D* has bothered to pay massive amounts for exclusivity, I'm not sure. I might have a little more understanding of D* wanting it as an exclusive if it was all they had to hang their hat on. But to hear them tell it, NFL-ST or not, they're the end all be all of pay television providers anyhow. And not like it's taken much to keep Ergen out of it. He's notoriously cheap (and gotten a good share of customers without it regardless). And cable may not have been "ready" to offer it much before now anyway.


Point being, lets keep this in perspective. NFL-ST isnt as "must have" as a lot of it's subs seem to think it is. Afterall, less than 2 homes out of 100 in this country sub to it.. nevermind the 11 or 12 million D* subs that *dont* buy it.. theres literally tens of millions of households with exposure to the southern sky that could otherwise have it if they really wanted it. We're not talkin bout a black market thing here. The NFL-ST, and all the other glories that go along with subbing to the company that provides it, are a mere phone call away.. and with basically nothing upfront.