I have a lesser set-up and it can play just about everything fine (without a lot of post processing)...with onboard graphics even. Except for the new nVidia cards, the graphics cards don't assist much with video playback, minor MPEG acceleration (DCT and CS conversion).
The 9600 isn't that much more--I wish I'd popped for that instead of the 9200SE I bought (but I was just trying to fix a boot issue--not really planning on using the card for video).
For about $250 more you could add a MyHD-130 card, but to go the DVI route with that it would be a bit more money (and the DVI daughtercard for the 130 isn't out yet). Then you'd be able to play TS files and only be using about 10% of the CPU cycles. But you'd add a lot of functionality (assuming you're not doing MCE).
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