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What are your thoughts on future WB HDM sales? Will they start selling more or less HDM copies of their movies?
Your thoughts on future WB HDM sales.
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I think they will sell roughly the same and depending on how far you want to go into the future obviously they will start selling more. In the very near future the increase of PS3s and standalone Blu-Ray players will make up for the loss of HD-DVD media sales.
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Wow... option 4 is in the lead? I think people here are really confused if they think the average Joe is going to run right out and buy a Blu-Ray player because Warner went Blu-Ray exclusive. Especially if they have been watching their mutual funds and stocks depreciate since Jan 1st, gas prices continue to rise, and housing markets collapse.
I think they will see about a 20 - 25 percent drop as people stop buying in HD-DVD format over the next few months. Then as more new users enter the BD market, they will see those numbers go back to where they were before within six months. After that, as more people become aware of HDM and Blu-Ray, and the price of BD players continue to drop, they should see a huge increase during the last quarter of the year.
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That's the part I'm not sure about. With the recession, will anyone outside of enthusiasts jump into HDM.
I think HDM may have just been mis-timed. First it's not a leap above dvd that people will notice. Second, people are starting to tighten their belts, which is never good for niche entertainment systems.
I think this is partly why the PS3 has been getting trounced by the 360 and Wii. Because of the first reason, the second holds greater weight.
I do think it will slowly grow and may off-set the loss of hd dvd owners, but I think it will take a very long time.
That's the part I'm not sure about. With the recession, will anyone outside of enthusiasts jump into HDM.
I think HDM may have just been mis-timed. First it's not a leap above dvd that people will notice. Second, people are starting to tighten their belts, which is never good for niche entertainment systems.
I think this is partly why the PS3 has been getting trounced by the 360 and Wii. Because of the first reason, the second holds greater weight.
I do think it will slowly grow and may off-set the loss of hd dvd owners, but I think it will take a very long time.
I see Warner sales dropping after they stop supporting HD DVD. The majority of those who were going to go purple have done so already. Others are waiting for player prices to come down or profile 2.0.
IMHO it will be a year or more before Warner's numbers are back to the point where they were neutral.
IMHO it will be a year or more before Warner's numbers are back to the point where they were neutral.
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Perhaps the scare of a recession is what's helping Blu-ray even more.
If Blu-ray players cost $300-500, these are people who most likely have some extra cash to spend and the recession scare isn't going to impact them much.
Whereas those looking at the recent HD DVD player reduction sales may be hesitent to purchase because $150 is a lot of money to them.
And if they decide to purchase, they will just watch the 2 free movies included and probably won't be buying any HD DVD discs anytime soon as they live on a tight budget. So for them they might rent a few HD DVD movies but stay away from disc purchase.
Even the Amazon DVD player and disc sales validate the HD DVD players might be selling but discs are not for HD DVD.
Whereas for Blu-ray, players and discs are selling quite well hand in hand.
On the OP, I believe they will be the same or increase as by June, there will be more Blu-ray owners to make purchases to negate the drop of Warner titles on HD DVD.
Perhaps the scare of a recession is what's helping Blu-ray even more.
If Blu-ray players cost $300-500, these are people who most likely have some extra cash to spend and the recession scare isn't going to impact them much.
Whereas those looking at the recent HD DVD player reduction sales may be hesitent to purchase because $150 is a lot of money to them.
And if they decide to purchase, they will just watch the 2 free movies included and probably won't be buying any HD DVD discs anytime soon as they live on a tight budget. So for them they might rent a few HD DVD movies but stay away from disc purchase.
Even the Amazon DVD player and disc sales validate the HD DVD players might be selling but discs are not for HD DVD.
Whereas for Blu-ray, players and discs are selling quite well hand in hand.
On the OP, I believe they will be the same or increase as by June, there will be more Blu-ray owners to make purchases to negate the drop of Warner titles on HD DVD.
At least in the short term, I see WB's sales increasing.
- All WB HD DVDs are now collector's items. People who were on the fence about specific titles now have a tangible reason to go out and get it before supplies dry up (we saw the same thing happen to a number of Paramount Blu-ray titles when they went HD DVD exclusive)
- Lots of Christmas gifts. Even if we say that some HD DVD hardware got returned due to the announcement from WB, not all of it did, and there's also the Blu-ray standalones and some ~800K PS3s that were sold in North America in December (NPD). That's a bunch of new owners who will be picking up discs - maybe not in the same quantities overall as we early-early adopters, but still enough to bump the total sales.
- The media splash generated by their announcement has brought some more spotlight on HDM, which has probably pushed more people over the fence; unknown as to how many, but certainly "some".
- All WB HD DVDs are now collector's items. People who were on the fence about specific titles now have a tangible reason to go out and get it before supplies dry up (we saw the same thing happen to a number of Paramount Blu-ray titles when they went HD DVD exclusive)
- Lots of Christmas gifts. Even if we say that some HD DVD hardware got returned due to the announcement from WB, not all of it did, and there's also the Blu-ray standalones and some ~800K PS3s that were sold in North America in December (NPD). That's a bunch of new owners who will be picking up discs - maybe not in the same quantities overall as we early-early adopters, but still enough to bump the total sales.
- The media splash generated by their announcement has brought some more spotlight on HDM, which has probably pushed more people over the fence; unknown as to how many, but certainly "some".
Time frame makes a big difference. The farther into the distance you go the better it gets. There will be a short after Xmas dip which is natural but very shortly I expect Warner sales to take off. Afterall with a 85:15 split and that 15% split among 3 studios right now old red ain't doing a lot to prop up the sales. Big media blitz coming soon I am sure.
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It depends on what they release - the more catalog titles they release, the more I'll buy.
It depends on what they release - the more catalog titles they release, the more I'll buy.
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Yeah, looking at the 85:15 sales ratio, I don't think WB will notice the loss of supporting HD-DVD. They should be able to make up any difference with the savings they get from only needing to support one platform.
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this is what my friend said to me after hearing the news, "now i can safely invest in blu-ray media w/o thinking i might be investing in a dead format." so i voted the last option.
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i focused on a shorter time horizon (immediately - 1 year). In that timeframe, i would expect sales to decrease. Some of this depends on the cross-over market (the "purple people"). What percentage of these people were "purple" before the announcement/switchover? If many of these people were already duel format, the impact is more likely to be minimal (net negative, only really positive if this gets people to switch in that time span and new owners chose BR at higher prices). Another wrinkle will be BD player prices - if they don't come down, is anybody else going to buy a player? i know that player prices will come down eventually, but the feeling that i get from what i have read about the BDA is that they will stick it to the early adopter a little more before getting serious (probably about 1-1.5 years) over this time period, i expect more CE profit taking on stand-alones). New players (CE manufactures) will likely be the ones initiating the lower prices (though i am not sure existing CEs will feel the need to compete). In other words, i think Toshiba's pricing was probably 2 years ahead of the BR curve.
More mid-term (2-4 years), net positive (though it would have been regardless of what they did as more users enter into the format, more exposure to HD as a result of the TV switchover). However, a rapid adoption seems unlikely in this period (with the possible exception of about 4 years out, more rapid but not instantaneous). Maybe an install base of about 5-10 million players (by the end of the period, not counting PS3 which should have been largely replaced by stand-alones for dedicated movie watching at this point).
You may not agree with this, but here is my view. There is no need to try and debate any of it (this is just my view). i am not sure (and unfortunately we will never find out) if WB would have better sales by going BR than the would have with HD DVD. The HD DVD price advantage on players will persist (like it or not, but the entry-level should satisfy most of the next wave of adopters) for as long as they are producing players (or probably 1.5 years, whatever is sooner). i saw HD DVD as having the longer tail (the ability to expedite, or at least get closer to mass adoption - and get there sooner). The more people who jump in earlier in the product's life, the greater the probability you can sell them more total discs over the life of the product. The BDA seem to still be targeting the enthuasist market (player wise), whereas HD DVD is/was targeting a larger demographic (i liked that approach better). It is really kind of strange that the hardware and software side of BR seemed to be targeting different groups (hardware = early adopter, software = PS3 owner). So, net what i think they could have gotten going the other way vs the tactic they did take = negative (yeah, speculative and not provable i know).
More mid-term (2-4 years), net positive (though it would have been regardless of what they did as more users enter into the format, more exposure to HD as a result of the TV switchover). However, a rapid adoption seems unlikely in this period (with the possible exception of about 4 years out, more rapid but not instantaneous). Maybe an install base of about 5-10 million players (by the end of the period, not counting PS3 which should have been largely replaced by stand-alones for dedicated movie watching at this point).
You may not agree with this, but here is my view. There is no need to try and debate any of it (this is just my view). i am not sure (and unfortunately we will never find out) if WB would have better sales by going BR than the would have with HD DVD. The HD DVD price advantage on players will persist (like it or not, but the entry-level should satisfy most of the next wave of adopters) for as long as they are producing players (or probably 1.5 years, whatever is sooner). i saw HD DVD as having the longer tail (the ability to expedite, or at least get closer to mass adoption - and get there sooner). The more people who jump in earlier in the product's life, the greater the probability you can sell them more total discs over the life of the product. The BDA seem to still be targeting the enthuasist market (player wise), whereas HD DVD is/was targeting a larger demographic (i liked that approach better). It is really kind of strange that the hardware and software side of BR seemed to be targeting different groups (hardware = early adopter, software = PS3 owner). So, net what i think they could have gotten going the other way vs the tactic they did take = negative (yeah, speculative and not provable i know).
From what I understand blu ray still needs 2 out of the 5 major non sony studios. So this takes out option 4. There is still a format war even though one is out front with more studio support so I choose option 1. Warner used to brag about selling the most hdm disks and this was because they were dual format. Sales will go down because hd people won't be able to buy their discs or afford blu ray players.
From what I understand blu ray still needs 2 out of the 5 major non sony studios. So this takes out option 4. There is still a format war even though one is out front with more studio support so I choose option 1. Warner used to brag about selling the most hdm disks and this was because they were dual format. Sales will go down because hd people won't be able to buy their discs or afford blu ray players.
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